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Showing content with the highest reputation on 12/22/15 in all areas

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    a machine could not have made this expressive and earnest graffiti. shitposting is just another word for the innate human quality that binds us together, that parents share with children, that unite people everywhere against strife and hatred. this is true beauty, and i implore you to consider it carefully.   [spoiler][/spoiler]
  4. 2 points
    *******READ******** I've received a couple of requests for intervention and subbing individuals out. I'm not going to do that under the stipulation that everyone chills out. If I see anymore overly aggressive or insulting posts directed at other players I will sub you out. I understand that Mafia comes with high emotion posts and some strategy to wind other players up for reactions but I'm not going to tolerate that being taken too far or personal attacks being used.
  5. 2 points
    Goddamnit autocorrect capitalizing the H. Guess Francis really is the Mafia God.
  6. 2 points
      Since when did openly discussing abilities day 1 ever helped town. hint: NEVER
  7. 2 points
    Shitty post but cant disagree
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    The regional is 3 hours away, I finish my game on Xbox at 7:15, decide to drive by myself, leave, gas up the car, arive at 10:15 and get in as a late entry.   -Get paired against the other late entry  - Round 1, Patrick Hoban's ARG Vegas List Card-for-Card (including Garnet and Dragonpit I never intended to side, might as well commit at this point) vs. Super Heavy Samurai   lost die roll -G1, Ignister his big DEF guy and attack for game -G2, forced to go first again, made T1 Naturia beast but apparently this deck revolves around playing close to no s/t, sick T1 play bro, manage to win when he can't clear my scales due to pendulum call (2-0)     -Round 2, My Netdeck vs Pepe   We're shuffling/cutting eachother's decks, he's blatantly staring at the bottom of my deck as shuffling, ask him to look up; he clearly already peeped the PePe (I mean performage pendulum magicians) (don't call it PePe right).   won die roll, choose to go second -G1, Resolve a Wavering Eyes for 4 vs. him and then win on the next turn with Ignister and a large field -G2, make T1 Naturia Beast + Pleiades, he sets one, I Pleiades it in the end phase, win on my 2nd turn (2-0)    -Round 3, Performage Magician vs. Infernoid   won dice roll, choose to go second -G1, He resolves a massive Monster Gate, wins by killing me after negating effects as I try to gain momentum -G2, He forgets some effects in grave such a breakthrough on a Pleiades I make, making this game easier than it should have been (Monster Gated again) -G3, Naturia Beast T1 negates a Charge of the Light Brigade before he realizes he can summon his Decatron to destroy it with Harmadik's effect but I am able to beat him in a few turns after resolving pendulum summons every turn (2-1)   -Round 4, Performage Magician vs Kozmo   lost die roll -G1, I make T1 Naturia Beast because I thought he was playing Pendulums. Farmgirl into Dark Destroyer outs my field and then leads to me dying 2 turns later. -G2, had MST for his Kaiser and resolved Ignister 2 turns in a row, he wasn't able to gain any advantage or make a push to kill me -G3, We're going into time but I'm able to resolve Luster + Plush and get Trapeze and a full field T1, then Omega eventually takes his last card in hand and I push for game on T4 of turns (2-1)   -Round 5, Performage Magician vs. Performage Magician   lost die roll -G1, I win with Ignister -G2, Magical Spring stops his Luster/Plush play, then I draw another to prevent him from pendulum summoning at all before I win in the next two turns (2-0) (I think)   -Round 6, vs Kozmo   won die roll G1, I win with Ignister G2, He wins with Anti-Spell and Flying C G3, I win by ramming Flying C into his monsters and then proceeding (2-1)     -Round 7, vs. friend w/ Magicians (ends up placing 1st)   lost die roll -G1, if I remember correctly, my hand could have made Naturia Beast + Pleiades and likely won, but we're joking around so I tilt and get double Ignistered -G2, I play into a Maxx C I shouldn't have, tilt myself again (0-2)   -Round 8, vs. Performage Magicians   won die roll G1, win with Naturia Beast and making him have to pass his turn G2, lost to Kirin getting in there. I think I could have won this game. G3, I really believe I could have won this game as well. I went into Naturia Beast and he tributes it for a Kaiju card he sides in specifically for Naturia Beast. Ouch. (1-2)     I figure that I'm x-2 so there's no chance to top 8, fuck it, I play my last match.   -Round 9 vs. Burning Abyss   lost die roll, he chooses to play first -G1, maindeck Anti-Spell Fragrance cripples me until he kills me with 2 Dante and a Virgil -G2, resolve Storm on multiple backrow and have MST for Anti-Spell -G3, summon Denko vs. Anti-Spell, he can't attack over her for a turn, then I flip summon a clown and normal, then make Castel with Denko on the field, spin Anti-Spell, then pendulum 3 and pick apart his field without fear. (2-1)     My two losses ended up playing each other round 9, my friend won both games without his opponent playing a single card the entire match (Naturia Beast + Dweller), and knocks him out of top 8 and I guess ended up getting me into top 8 at 7th place somehow. Feels kind of fluke, but it's my first regional top 8 so it's kind of cool.    Thanks for reading if you made it this far. Pendulums are insane and barely feel like Yugioh.       decklist:  
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    I don't see how this is immensely complicated.  Sometimes Chumlee you just make threads a lot more verbose than they need to be.  Even if you're making the right point, the wall of text required to express that point just isn't concise.       if your chance of unintentionally drawing vs any opponent in any round is 1/12, and your chance of beating your hardest opponent is 5/10, or even 6/10, then why wouldn't you ID with your hardest opponent earlier in the tournament and take the risk of unintentionally drawing.  Obviously convincing an opponent who you're 3/10 vs to ID with you is the jackpot, but assuming you can't pull that off this is still perfectly valid at 6/10     Like if you have 1/12 chance of UDing each round, and it's an eight round ARG, then you basically have a 50/50 chance of UDing any one of those 8 rounds, it's like a 50.15% chance of UDing.   But each round you successfully clear reduces the chance of UDing the later rounds.  After 5 rounds it's merely a ~23% chance of UDing one of the last 3 rounds.     Contrast that with a 50/50 chance of winning if you play your hardest opponent r5, and it makes straight up mathematical sense to ID rather than play out the hard match.      Only question is, is 1/12 the right statistic?  In say Edragons format the odds were probably higher than 1/12 because games took forever, infinite rotas.  In PePe format post Bosh though, I'd say they'd be MUCH lower than 1/12 because games only go for 2-3 turns before the Pendulum knockout punch arrives. If you're fast with your T1 PePe combos there's a very small chance you'll go into time at all.  If you just minimise your chances of UDing by grinding PePe until your eyes bleed and your Duelingnetwork finger has RSI, you'll be playing your t1 combos extremely fast.     You can just completely remove any chance of UDing except vs the slowest of the slow players, who usually aren't in the tournament r6/7/8 a lot of the time, and if they are you can just hurry them up, get in their face about playing faster and tilt them.     The #1 reason people are slow in this game is because they're on the horizon between knowing just enough to know what a good play sort of looks like, but still needing 10 minutes to think about it.   Call a judge, get them a slow play warning, and they won't have time to think about it and lose.  Job done.   
  12. 2 points
    wherever your basement isnt
  13. 1 point
    essentially it's extending his life for the sake of extending his life instead of actually doing anything
  14. 1 point
    this is why ppl don't want to post on deck discussions anymore
  15. 1 point
    Did you not read the fluff in the OP ffs
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      The phrase you're missing here is in a row. What mystical genie is letting you know you'll win all these in a row vs the risk you're taking in each individual round?        It was just a vacuum example of why a draw is more similar to a loss than it is to a win; in the sense you have one more round to play before you're safe.   And to previous point, there is a huge difference between "If I draw now, how can I be sure to win the next round" and "If I draw next round, how can I be sure to win now".   In one case, you've used your get out of jail free card but you can still go back to jail, while the other you can't get back to jail. The first scenario is more contingent on a win, because if you lose this round, the second statement is irrelevant anyway.   I'm sure you're very adamant that there is a possibility that using the ID in another round is correct, but you're also taking out variables such getting lucked out (something the insurance industry completely base their strategy on) and the fact that unintentional draws can occur (no amount of technical skil/playl can completely omit this). It really just is a get out of jail free card and when you want to use it, and ideally you'd want to use it when it matters most, to put yourself in a situation where external factors cannot hurt you anymore.
  18. 1 point
    The overall point here is that a draw early on more closely resembles a loss in terms of your position for the rest of the tournament. The math backs it up (which you just ignored because "well I don't understand how math works lol"), and Matt is basically grasping for straws at this point.   IDing to get into the draw bracket with good matchups is a logically sound strategy but is a scenario that is unlikely to occur and has a lot of practical issues.
  19. 1 point
    That's not the case. Say it's a 9 round tournament, and 7-1-1 or better makes top cut (which sounds typical for ARG). Now let's just assume your given conditions. Let's also suppose that paired against your arch nemesis, the 80% player in round 1. Suppose you decide to draw. There are two ways that you can make the top cut. Win the next 7/7 rounds and ID the 9th round, or win the next 6/7 rounds also win the last round. The total probability of this occurring (from binomial stat tables) is 0.4782969 + 0.3720087*.9 = .76527504. Now suppose that you decide to play the matchup out. There are two possibilities, either you win the match (80% of the time) or lose the match (20% of the time). If you lose the match, you have to win the next 7/7 rounds and then ID the last round. If you win the match, then you can either win the next 6/6 matches and double ID into the top cut, or win the next 5/6 matches, then win the next match and ID the last match into top cut. The probability of topping then is .8*(0.531441 + 0.354294*.9) + .2*0.4782969 = 0.77590386 (which is higher than the first number). The math is very counter-intuitive. Can you construct some weird scenario where it's better to ID in an early round? Sure. I feel however like I'm just getting into the same argument as from the Similar Card thread. Just because you can construct some theoretical scenario where something is optimal doesn't mean that it'll be likely to come up. Even more unlikely is that you'll be able to recognize it. Obviously in reality you're not going to have perfect information about your matchups vs the entire room. So why not just go with the strategy that is the correct one 99.9% of the time?     I'll be the first to admit I don't know a lot about math, but being a reflection of logic, can you point out the logical issue in the following line? If your math is accurate then there must be something I'm not considering here:   5. Another thing I have an issue with, why are we isolating the last round? The only thing that sets it apart is at certain records, it is the only round that guarantees you a top. I understand the appeal of this but I feel as if some people aren't understanding that when you look at the tournaments as totals, it doesn't matter the actual number round you used it in. Looking at the tournament as a progression will lead you to think it's the best but it's sort of a results-oriented mindset (don't get me wrong I don't like using that phrase,) the reason being that, just because you happen to win the games to get there doesn't mean you had the highest chance of winning them, meaning it might not have been the best idea to even play all of them in the first place. I suppose the most blatant example here would be to consider a situation where you have 2 rounds left, at x-1, and can top with only a draw but not a loss. You get paired with someone in round 8, or 7 in an 8 round event, that you have determined will be way more difficult to beat than whoever you get paired up with in the following round if you make it there. Why on earth would you not offer to ID here? If you have a 70% chance of winning, and if you win you ID the last round and top, but you know that if you ID here you'll get paired with someone you have an 80% chance of beating in the next round, you're talking a 10% increase in your chances of topping here, Allen. That is the issue that arises when you isolate the last round from the rest of the tournament and don't look at it in total, you miss this kind of stuff.        "Just because you can construct some theoretical scenario where something is optimal doesn't mean that it'll be likely to come up."   The thing that's reflected in the mathematics that you fail to consider (the logical issue) is that the earlier you have your ID, the higher chance you'll have to lose additional games later. Having the option to ID and keeping it means you can play an 8 round tournament when you're doing good, but have the extra 9th round if you're doing bad. If you ID early, you're forced to win one more round than if you just won the round you ID'd in and all allen's example does is show how the probabilities add up so that you're overall more likely to top if you keep the options open for how many rounds you want the tournament to be. The chances of winning that one round outweighs the chances of not losing the remaining rounds. The longer you let the tournament progress, the stronger the ID becomes. And the last round is the extreme case here in offering a guaranteed top.   Looking at it like "which round would benefit me the most to ID?" doesn't account for the scenario when the correct course of action was to play out all rounds.   Also, categorizing something as "results-oriented mindset" doesn't automatically imply that it's wrong or bad. You can call it whatever you want, but that doesn't further your argument in any way like it seems you tried to imply in your text. In this case, it turns out that it's best to first see as many of the results as possible and then make the decision.
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    Jump on DN to watch a game for the first time in forever. Open up the watchers because I like to feel good about myself................... and now I know what happens in star wars tfa. Didn't believe it so I jump on facebook..................................................... hope no one is friends with sater on FB and hasn't seen the movie.     Fucking hell.
  24. 1 point
    Millennium Pack: MP01-JP001 《ラーの翼神竜-不死鳥》 added as The Winged Dragon of Ra - God Phoenix MP01-JP002 《獄炎のカース・オブ・ドラゴン》 added as Infernal Curse of Dragon MP01-JP003 《ホールディング・アームズ》 added as Holding Arms MP01-JP004 《ホールディング・レッグス》 added as Holding Legs MP01-JP013 《天翔の竜騎士ガイア》 added as Soaring Gaia the Dragon Champion MP01-JP016 《造反劇》 added as Rebellion MP01-JP017 《命削りの宝札》 added as Card of Demise MP01-JP018 《左腕の代償》 added as Left Arm Offering MP01-JP019 《真実の名》 added as True Name MP01-JP026 《串刺しの落とし穴》 added as Trap Hole - Chasm of Spikes Premium Pack 18: PP18-JP001 《魔帝アングマール》 added as Angmar the Witch Monarch PP18-JP002 《ジャンク・チェンジャー》 added as Junk Changer PP18-JP003 《ジャンクリボー》 added as Junkuriboh PP18-JP004 《奇術王 ムーン・スター》 added as Trickster King Moon Star PP18-JP005 《スターダスト・チャージ・ウォリアー》 added as Stardust Charge Warrior PP18-JP006 《究極幻神 アルティミトル・ビシバールキン》 added as Ultimitl Bixbalquin PP18-JP007 《No.37 希望織竜スパイダー・シャーク》 added as Number 37: Hopeweaver Dragon Spider Shark PP18-JP008 《No.38 希望魁竜タイタニック・ギャラクシー》 added as Number 38: Hopebringer Dragon Titanic Galaxy PP18-JP009 《No.35 ラベノス・タランチュラ》 added as Number 35: Ravenous Tarantula PP18-JP010 《No.84 ペイン・ゲイナー》 added as Number 84: Pain Gainer PP18-JP011 《No.77 ザ・セブン・シンズ》 added as Number 77: The Seven Sins PP18-JP012 《帝王の凍気》 added as Spirit of the Monarchs PP18-JP013 《九十九スラッシュ》 added as Tsukumo Slash PP18-JP014 《輝望道》 added as Shining Hope Road PP18-JP015 《幻影騎士団シェード・ブリガンダイン》 added as The Phantom Knights of Shade Brigandine PP18-JP016 《幻影騎士団ダーク・ガントレット》 added as The Phantom Knights of Dark Gauntlet PP18-JP017 《幻影騎士団トゥーム・シールド》 added as The Phantom Knights of Tomb Shield PP18-JP018 《ダーク・アドバンス》 added as Dark Advance PP18-JP019 《王魂調和》 added as Harmony of the King's Soul PP18-JP020 《レッド・スプレマシー》 added as Red Supremacy Promos: 青眼の双爆裂龍[ブルーアイズ・ツイン・バースト・ドラゴン] added as Blue-Eyes Twin Burst Dragon
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          D.D. AngelSpade: gl MyEyeNrg admitted defeat Siding for next duel has begun (0-1-0) D.D. AngelSpade: let me guess you run papi MyEyeNrg: No D.D. AngelSpade: then why forfiet? MyEyeNrg: ef MyEyeNrg: cant activate MyEyeNrg: majesty D.D. AngelSpade: trying to remember if that's a summoning condition and not an effect D.D. AngelSpade: he can't stop summoning conditions MyEyeNrg: It is an effect.. D.D. AngelSpade: he can't stop summons MyEyeNrg: Do you see the " : " on its text MyEyeNrg: ? MyEyeNrg: That means it is an effect D.D. AngelSpade: oh i see it D.D. AngelSpade: but im trying to make sure of something D.D. AngelSpade: relax MyEyeNrg: .. D.D. AngelSpade: he cant stop summoning condition effects D.D. AngelSpade: like bls and others like him MyEyeNrg: WOW MyEyeNrg: Hey D.D. AngelSpade: what? MyEyeNrg: BLS summoning, its not an effect MyEyeNrg: it doesnt activate MyEyeNrg: Your Priesstess MyEyeNrg: DOES ACTIVATE D.D. AngelSpade: fine, but you should check the rulings MyEyeNrg: LMAO D.D. AngelSpade: this isn't the last time someone had fun lying D.D. AngelSpade: hey if you dont believe me go check D.D. AngelSpade has lost 2400 life points D.D. AngelSpade has lost 2400 life points D.D. AngelSpade: oh yea now I remember, he can't stop inherit special summons D.D. AngelSpade: you should do some research man D.D. AngelSpade: im out D.D. AngelSpade has left the duel - - - - - - - - - - - - -  TL;DR: He was playing Spellbook. I left a Majesty on Field. He insisted that Majesty cannot stop Priestess. And called me a liar, yada yada.
  27. 1 point
    Watched it on Saturday and have very mixed things to say about everything. [SPOILER] Star Wars!! Yeah!! Great entertainment! Waited so long and finally... Now that we got this out of the way, I have to say that there were some big flaws although I loved the whole thing. The look of this episode is very much NOT unique. It looks like a standard action movie. Funny thing was that the Star Trek trailer before the movie looked exactly the same. I mean come on, Star Wars and Star Trek look identically nowadays? Oh right, same director... NO space battles. WTF! Is this Star Wars or what? Very uninspired story. Empire has big ass weapon, small group of mini ships destroys reactor core and thing explodes. In the mean time, kid on a sand planet finds out she's a Jedi and some sidekicks experience some action (actually the same sidekicks). Father and son kill each other and some overlord acts in the background. Light Saber duel in the woods is pathetic. Ren is introduced as extremely powerful in the first sequence and in the end isn't able to beat light sabre noobs in a 1on1? The attack on the Starkiller base is done by a handful of X-Wings, not even backed-up by some bigass comships or something. Same on the side of the order. No Stardestroyers nearby. Thus, no space battle. Chance for great scenes ruined. Therefore some of the classic Star Wars feeling lost. Knights of Ren and Snoke not introduced even the tiniest of a bit. Not even a single dialog or something that gives information. Good things: The whole plot with Han and Leia and their son is cool. I liked that. The new droid is great. Finn is a somewhat interesting character. Might join the dark side later if it turns out he is force sensitive. Kylo Ren was good. He is so damn not likeable. A pathetic idiot. That's actually good. He's like late Annie 2.0. Jokes were mostly funny. And save the best for last: Rey is SENSATIONAL. Great acting, great character. Although seemingly a little miss perfect, she also shows anger, fear and rage, is impulsive and the conflicts are already on the horizon. Wonderful. Leia was also really cool as experienced battle general imho. [/SPOILER] Overall, I had a great time and might even watch it again. But as I said above, it could have been much better. But hey, it's new Star Wars afterall.
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    You can also use the hearthstone deck tracker. It's nice. Good to show me how shitty my opening hand is before I even see it!   So demotivated to climb past rank 10 with all the aggro shaman. Very annoying.
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    btw youre not manipulating anyone, your roommate just happens to feel a deep pity for you and what a fucking stupid piece of shit you are 
  32. 1 point
    There is no new card bias at the beginning of expansions
  33. 1 point
    I think Blizz at least acknowledges that that problem exists, which is probably why they use the 20% offering bonus towards new cards for each new expansion. You have at least some expectation of the odds of what you draft in addition to whatever existing class card bias exists. The problem I find is what happens when you don't balance out the classes or attempt to keep the core "flavor" of what they do. Or even give them anything USEFUL as their class (common) cards become diluted.
  34. 1 point
    I've hit rank 11 already this season, which isn't a super big accomplishment by any stretch, but last month it took me the whole season to hit that, and now I have two weeks to just kind of push my own personal ceiling and see how far I can get. And I'm hyped for that. :D   Gotta believe and feel good about setting reasonable goals and making them. I just got my first hero to 100 wins. That's awesome for 2.5 months of playing with all 9 heroes. lol
  35. 1 point
    I was too busy in the beginning of the season w/ school and work to try and climb to legend, so I just didn't try lol. I will try again next season for sure.
  36. 1 point
    In the context of arena, it's very marginally worse than Frostbolt. This is the point I'm making. Yes it's worse, but if it's by 1% it really doesn't matter.
  37. 1 point
    I mean there's also examples of Frostbolt vs Forgotten Torch levels of comparison as well
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    That's like any card game. You can't say every new set in mtg/ygo means the game is more and more about variance.   More stuff will come out. There might be a few "lucky" cards but just like every game the better players will win more often.  I don't really care how half of the community feels. I'm sure half of the playerbase is casual and terrible.
  40. 1 point
    same thing happened to me, fam :(
  41. 1 point
    Seen posts about that before on other forums before. Think it's just an uncommon bug.
  42. 1 point
    I mean I got the card back and I ain't even mad.
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    Frankly, I have absolutely no idea what Tewart and Hedburg did to warrant backlash from the community, but I do know this.   Last week, I made a complete list of every single product ever released in TCG-EN, except for Jump promos and prize cards, sorted chronoligically by release date (a far cry from this crap).  I noticed some things.  Since KDE's takeover of TCG distribution, they tried to do a lot of different things to at least attempt to address player concerns.  Old cards too hard to get?  We'll make more reprints.  Coin toss format?  We'll make top cuts go to draft.  Hate draft?  Okay, we'll make it go away.  Tournament pack exclusive cards too expensive?  We'll make them only rarity-bump reprints and errata.   I honestly think KDE does care about the players, but some of their actions are just misunderstoond.  The intentions feel right, even if the consequences weren't necessarily the best.  Given the circumstances of our game now, though, I'd say KDE is taking the right steps with TCG's distribution changes.  A holo in every pack makes the purchase of a single blister so much more enticing.  Making the game more available in this way, especially the higher end, will only be more encouraging of young, beginning players to finish their decks and play with others.   Perhaps TCG will eventually catch on to OCG's release schedule, so that everyone in the TCG community gets the same information at the same time, and there isn't a disproportionate group (that we're a part of) that knows the game three months ahead.  I know for a fact that, when my friends and I first started dabbling in competitive play, learning that fact was absolutely crushing.  How were we supposed to keep up with that?  It just added more to the huge amount of information we needed to learn to even keep up with the game.  They ended up drifting away because the time commitment beyond the game was just to much, and I stayed, because I genuinely love this game.   The game isn't dying in the slightest.  You go to any Target, Wal-Mart, what have you, and you'll see tons of old products for other games and TCGs warming shelves, but Yu-Gi-Oh! is always stocked with the latest and greatest.  Or they're just sold out.  Because they're buying product.  Because they're playing the game.  Because the game is still alive and well.
  45. 1 point
    i often style my hair as yugis and put a duel disk on vs good players as well
  46. 1 point
    those are the same kinds of people that won't touch a deck when its good but when it gets gutted by the banlist they're all over it so that they stay """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""unique""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""TM
  47. 1 point
    It can be justified just fine. Suppose there are 3 decks representing meta game as follows: Deck A ... 50% Deck B ... 30% Deck C ... 20% Probability that Deck A flips Skill Drain on the first turn is 36.17%. Deck A doesn't mind being Dark Hole'd and aside from Skill Drain, doesn't mind being MST'd.  Probability that Deck B summons Dark Law on the first turn is 53.8%. Deck B doesn't mind being MST'd, and aside from Dark Law, doesn't mind being Dark Hole'd.  Suppose that if you cannot out Skill Drain or Dark Law, you will lose. You have 5 spots in your deck and you are trying to decide what is the corect number of MSTs (or similiar cards) and correct number of Dark Holes/Raigeki's in the Main Deck. Also suppose that Deck C doesn't mind being MST'd nor being Dark Hole'd.   Now, by your logic, it's always better to decide which is more important to have and then maximaze its number.  Let's see.  Deck A represents larger part of meta game. So we could expect that playing  5 MST's, 0 Dark Holes will give us better chances of seeing live cards.  The probability that you get paired with Deck A is 0.5 The probability that they open Skill Drain is 0.3617 The probability that you open MST going second (from your excel) is 0.6102   The probability that you will see live MST is 0.5*0.3617*0.6102 = 0.1104 But what happens if you play 4 MSTs and 1 Dark Hole? The probability that you get paired with Deck A is 0.5 The probability that you get paired with Deck B is 0.3 The probability that Deck A opens Skill Drain is 0.3617 The probability that Deck B opens Dark Law is 0.538 The probability that you open MST going second is 0.5236 The probability that you open Dark Hole going second is 0.1622 The probability that you will see live MST or Dark Hole is 0.5*0.3617*0.5236+0.3*0.538*0.1622 = 0.1209 Whoa. What a surprise.  Similarly, you could do this for every possible combination of Dark Hole and MST and find the correct number (in this scenario, it would be 3 MSTs and 2 Dark Holes). But saying that maximizing one unsearchable card before even considering another because you don't control when you draw it, is stupid. And is not true.  And before you even start complaining about how specific this scenario is, I will say that all these numbers are totally random (aside from probabilities of drawing your 5'ofs and 1'ofs that were taken from the chart you provided) and if you tried this with any other numbers you would get similar results for most metagames that aren't 90 % Deck A.  In broader sense.  The chance to draw your cards to be live can be defined as a functon P(x,y,z). Where x y z are independant variables and the problem we are facing is finding global maximum on the relevant interval. Saying that the global maximum can only exist on certain edges of the interval is stupid. And incorrect. (Sorry if I use incorrect terms on this, but talking about mathematical problems in english is very difficult for me.)   I should also note that in reality nothing is  as black and white as this, and it's impossible to say that if  I don't draw this,  I lose, or if  I draw this, it will be dead draw. The way I think this could be solved is by defining "how much it matters if I don't draw this" into a constant and then just include that constant into the equation. In our scenario, you would need to define numbers for "how much it matters if I don't draw MST and they have Skill Drain", "how much it matters if I don't draw Dark Hole and they have Dark Law", "how much it matters if I draw MST when I don't need it", and so on.... In our example, I tried to define the terms so all these subjective constants we would have to define, can be recognized as "you need to draw it, or you lose"  or "if you draw it and they don't, then you have no usage for it". But the point that global maximum can exist even inside of the interval still stands. To sum it up: The argument that you don't control when you draw the card thus you play maximum of one card is wrong. Even though you don't control when you draw it, just the fact that you have it in your deck, increases probability of seeing it in situations you want to see it (for the cost of lessening probability on seeing the "better" card in another situation), while maximazing only one card will give you the best probability in one certain situation, but you are also giving up the chances of seeing "better" card in other situations. Our goal should be to maximize the chance of seeing cards when we need them according to meta game, not according to one match-up. And this holds true for any 2 cards that have different usage in different situations. No matter how similar they are. Only the more similar 2 cards are, the harder it is to come up with a scenario where this can be proven. Of course that if there is a card, that can be straight defined as "better in general", then maximizing that card before even considering the other is correct, but it's not possible to define "better in general" between cards like PWWB and Raigeki Break that would hold in every situation.Unfortunately I'm at school right now being paid to help ignorant people like you in math, so I can't address this post with a full response. However, I will let you know that the "better card" in this scenario is Dark Hole, thus the optimal configuration is 5 Dark Hole/0 MST (and I can prove all of this). Also, I will start a new thread in theory/philosophy when I get home in 6 hours or whatever.
  48. 1 point
    and even in a 60 card list, 35 PoG isn't optimal because of cards like Seal of the Forbidden Spell, and to a slightly lesser extent, Mind Crush and D.D. Designator.  You would want a variety of PoG/GC/Upstart/Into the Void/etc. Apparently Frogman doesn't play against people that side in this format. What a fraud.
  49. 1 point
    I love that DGZ had a serious discussion about whether this decklist was optimal and came to the conclusion that it wasn't. Never change.
  50. 1 point
    > i still care what -some- people think, tho i shouldn't (regarding these specific individuals) > im very concerned about my career. currently i belong to the group of people who are very apathetic about their job, and i dont wanna be that. djing has become a very cool hobby but i havent seen a dime from it yet, so i cant count on it at all > very hard imagining myself in a relationship