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StandardBasicCardTheorist

Duelist
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Everything posted by StandardBasicCardTheorist

  1. Daytrading free money thread

    Close to tripled my account ever since the volatile things last week. Lots of excellent opportunities in this market environment every day for the double+ hits.
  2. Daytrading free money thread

    Mentioned in the intro thread as having been kinda known in YGO for a long time, then quit for a long time, then started trading professionally for a long time. I'm pretty good as far as short term trades go. Trend following, however, is not my forte. I'm going to post live trades and predictions on here towards markets. I specialize in the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, S&P 500, and volatility products. However, I also trade a few stocks such as TSLA, CMG, etc. Some basic terminology and things to think about: ~Going 'long' means money is made if it goes up. ~Going 'short' means money is made if it goes down. ~Short timeframes means that money is made from small moves. So if a large move has already happened since a post, do not 'chase'-you'll probably buy high, sell low. ~Don't follow trades until you know what you're doing. I might just post an entry and exit whenever, or trade while at work and not have time, etc. And you'll end up stuck with the L. ~I tend to trade weekly options and futures- highly leveraged instruments that can result in a large gain or loss very quickly from even small fluctuations. So if it looks like a small move, know that its been multiplied many times over. For example, a $1 move in SPY translates to around a 10 point move in a single /ES (S&P 500 futures) contract which is $500 move. A 0 DTE (days to expiry) option can move 10% in literally the blink of an eye. Those are crazy. They are called 'lottos'- you're not expected to win consistently on them but holding them through a large move will multiply them over. Usually, the premium (cost of the extrinsic/potential value) exceeds the realized (what it turns out to be) value, and each minute eats away at their value until time is up. So you can buy them when a stock is at 50 and you wait for the price to move in your direction but it does so later on at a dollar up and you can still lose money. If you want to know more about this, search 'options and greeks'. ~My trading strategy is directional and pretty unique, even in the trading world. I'll be posting charts, methodology, and so on. I will not be editing any comments in order to keep what I'd said the way it was in real time.
  3. Daytrading free money thread

    I discovered a new technique on Friday. Normally, when an unusually high volume to movement ratio occurs on a candle on a line, a reversal is expected. However, it is also possible for one thing to hit a line on normal volume but another index has high volume at the same time even if there is no line hit. I suppose the technical reason for this is that we cannot find all the reversal points in the market as it is impossible to do so, and therefore price behavior in isolation reflects a potential reversal. But a price level is still required to determine where price is to reverse; this method simply tells when price should reverse. For example, VXX is generally the inverse to /ES. So when it hit the line at 8:45 (the first time it hit the resistance line), /ES was on a LoD. But there was no high volume on VXX around that time. However, there was high volume on /ES and QQQ 5 minutes before that time, thus implying a reversal (as traders are taking the opposite position there- buying into sells at an unusually high amount). And on that note, if you look at 7:50, QQQ hit the line, but it was DIA that showed a high amount of volume. That was where price reversed. Also note the exit point- 8:10 was when /ES hit resistance from the low of the 7:50 bounce up. Price never got back that high on that day. Of course, it isn't enough information to have opened a short trade when price got there, but it was simply an exit point from the previous long trade. VXX actually kept going lower for a few mins after /ES hit its high- the inverse correlation is not 1:1. The risk:reward at that point was not worth staying in the trade in hopes of price breaking through. Just trade by what the market gives. Also see the 12:20 candle- that was when /ES hit the line and had high volume at the same time. I just love those kinds of trades. See how QQQ hit its line first but there was no high volume anywhere when it did so. Still could have been a small trade but it wasn't such a great one. This helps identify the 'real' reversal point instead of the potential ones.
  4. Daytrading free money thread

    This is a TSLA (Tesla) chart shown on the weekly level (each bar represents 1 week of trading). See how the last price is now as high as a previous major low, which is also close to other major lows? It was a price floor which has now turned into a price ceiling. Anyone who bought TSLA at those old lows (~245-252) and still holding thinking they were buying the low are currently at a loss. So if price rises, they will likely try to sell at breakeven to avoid a loss. This is 'resistance'- it should prevent price from rising too much. This is just the beginning of resistance however- but it would have stopped one from shorting too early. If TSLA is not a good company and should keep going down, etc then this can be a decent point to open a long term short trade. I don't usually trade this long term stuff but its just an idea. Again, I don't specialize in longer term trades, so who knows. Its actually a common and basic strategy, very little analysis. TSLA tends to be better to trade intraday. The general market has been making new ATHs (all time highs) so unfortunately I am unable to use my double+ line hit strategy to trade just yet. Could have done buy and hold but doing that in the correction would have netted a big drawdown. Nobody really knows, and all strategies have their downsides.
  5. Daytrading free money thread

    Standard 'best' strategy meaning, to reiterate, a double+ support or resistance. The price opened under the line for Dow and QQQ, and they both hit the lines as resistance at the same time.
  6. Daytrading free money thread

    Shorted natural gas on its HoD (High of Day). I went all-in on that one and turned an enormous 4 figure profit. Its nicknamed the widowmaker due to its extreme volatility and unpredictability, and can be quite dangerous. See here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-19/hedge-fund-s-accounts-liquidated-amid-energy-market-volatility My strategy works on it but the setups it provides are only occasional. Best to just set alerts and ignore it until it comes to the price I had marked out, then trade. Actually, this is the case for most things. The setup I saw on this one was that it hit one of the long term lines I had marked out a long time ago which was also the 4/25 LoD low of the day where it bounced; it was the low for the change in trend. When prices align in that manner, it confirmed I had found a market sweet spot. Opened the short 'in front of a steamroller' as they say. I closed it too quickly- had I held, it would have been more than double the profit, and was the same technical point I had thought to close as the minimum target. However, it was just too terrifying to hold. Each tick increment was a huge amount. Couldn't handle it. Sometimes you raise, sometimes you fold. I also traded the Nasdaq/QQQ for a bit. rei, it is just as you said, you gotta play only when the advantage is there and walk away when not. See the first candle on the Dow and QQQ at 6:30? That was my standard 'best' strategy, and it worked again. The exit was also the first line on the downside where the price bounced. Doesn't always bounce there, but that doesn't really matter, as it is a point for exit and take profits, not one of entering (unless there is a setup). It isn't as simple as blindly buying or selling on a line.
  7. Daytrading free money thread

    Switching over to a different account due to restrictions on the current one (nothing I did, just due to account type) which may take a week or so. Hoping volatility continues- don't really care which direction price goes as long as it makes big and quick moves.
  8. Daytrading free money thread

    Really slow day, only made like 1% on net worth
  9. Daytrading free money thread

    Lol hardly anyone would read it, nobody home anymore... I took my dad's old mercedes and tried drifting in the rain and almost crashed...also lost control of it on an exit in the rain another time and some random truck dude pushed me with his truck when I got stuck in the mud...some police shenanigans too... And as predicted, the market bounced at those points mentioned, right on the lows. I've never seen all 4 hit simultaneously- amazing! And as stated, I would put all my money in that trade, and I did- made off with a king's ransom today. Not going to lie though, it was scary and I was literally shaking- those were the riskiest options I could buy. Notice also too the high gray total volume bars in the background- this shows that supply (sellers) is being consumed by buys. Think of it like this: selling causes price to go lower, and buying bids price higher. So demand must exceed supply to reverse price up. So if the ratio of volume to price change is higher, it implies that there is now more buying mixed in than before. Eg price moves down .2% on a volume of 10, but the next bar goes down .2% on a volume of 15. More effort was needed to drive price down the same amount. It is basically buyers and sellers cancelling each other out. On lows, it shows that buyers are willing to accept this price and find value at that price point, and therefore suck up the supply. If it happens on a line on High of Day (HoD) or Low of Day (LoD), it gives extra credence to a reversal thesis.
  10. Daytrading free money thread

    Yep but even my suboptimal strategy is still profitable, so it is possible. I will have to trade smaller though. But yeah sometimes there aren't any good setups and I don't make any trades for the day. DIA 265.93 QQQ 187.53 /ES 2940.40 VXX 26.28 or 26.68 If any 2+ hit at the same time intraday as support (resistance for VXX), I'll dump all of my money in longs
  11. Daytrading free money thread

    Market hitting all time highs. There are therefore no price levels to work with so I'll have to change my strategy to a worse one. Not sure where to go from here yet.
  12. Daytrading free money thread

    Sounds like a Subaru WRX. I'm rally into cars too, there are several modified ones at the auto shop where I work. Done some crazy driving...I think you have as well lol. Did well today. Today was FOMC and when they were talking about what they'd do with interest rates, the algorithms went crazy as they always do. I used the lines to predict where the buys and sells would be and it worked out amazingly. On the 11AM candle, the price dropped and hit 2 support lines, one on /ES and one on QQQ at the same time. That would have been my entry if I was quick enough. Blinked and the price shot up like crazy. It went high to the point where both DIA and QQQ hit at the same time on highs of the day. I managed to catch that one but closed it quick- values were fluctuating more than Trump's tweets on a good (bad?) day. Up 4% on the day. Could have been more but could have lost money too- a lot of people got killed out there. Trading against the multimillion dollar hedge fund and institution computers is tough. And again, yesterday's chart can be used to verify that these price points were generated well in advance, not after the fact. I hope I can make enough to quit my job soon and become a full time trader.
  13. Daytrading free money thread

    Man, exits are tough to pick. If I held for another 5 min, could have had 5-6% up on the account. But a big green candle came in and would have wiped some of that profit. The thing is that with options, because of the theta, if the price of the stock itself returns to the point of entry, the value of the option erodes and one will be at a loss- even if it goes in your direction. But they can gain- and lose- value really quickly. Its a commonly held belief that trading options, particularly short term 'weeklys' is a losing game and just gambling. Futures generally provide a better risk:reward ratio, apparently, as they function linearly. I will probably switch over to using them. Even if the absolute gain amounts are lower, the r:r profile is improved. I pretty much dump my whole paycheck in my account each month and all my money is sitting in the account with almost nothing in the bank. Its a scary game...I usually put in at least 20% of life savings per trade in the riskiest weeklys. High risk high reward. Just gotta keep grinding it up. Its funny, but I used to be obsessed with YGO. Now that its come to trading, its the exact same thing, spending hours every day on the markets. It's not so much about the money (its a great thing to have, no doubt) but about passion for the game. Its just really fun. I like posting here I guess because its a bit like a journal and trading reminds me of ygo and the old days. Documenting brief moments of the thought process over time. I have a bunch of old trading notebooks (I started trading 3 years ago) and I believed in a lot of stuff about trading I'd read from books and online that never worked and lost a lot of money. I went through those in case I had forgotten a good technique but its just notebook after notebook of trash.
  14. Daytrading free money thread

    I see, it'd be cool if we all got rich and got a bunch of supercars and raced down the streets of Vegas throwing money to homeless people. Also, DIA 265.93 on the dot. Upped life savings by over 2% on that one.
  15. Daytrading free money thread

    265.93 on DIA will probably be a short if it hits before FOMC due to lack of momentum but it is a single inflection reversal trade.
  16. Daytrading free money thread

    FOMC today. So the market will likely stay in tight range until the interest rate announcement. Then the market should make huge candles. The question is, in what direction? It is possible to take both the long and short side via a strangle (an options strategy that hopes the market moves big either up or down. If the market moves enough in a direction, the value of the option will become over 100% while the other loses almost all its value, thus turning a profit. The Realized Move needs to be greater than the Expected Move- that is, Implied Volatility vs Realized Volatility). It often happens that the initial move should be faded- so if the market moves up, they should short it, and vice versa. This does not always happen, and generally one needs to be quick to get in and out in the event of reversals. It will probably be a tricky day.
  17. Daytrading free money thread

    Also wondering if I should keep posting if there's even a point and if so, what? Forecasts? Methodology? Live trades? The market is nearing all time highs too so if it gets there, there won't be so many lines to play with so I'll have to rely on individual stocks which I am not as good on, unlike the simultaneous hit strategy... trend trading is better but I kind of suck at just buying and holding. Its easy but being this high makes me secondguess...I'd love the market to crash though.
  18. Daytrading free money thread

    You're right. If they could trade, they would have used their strategies to make money themselves rather than sell it, as a profitable system is extremely valuable. This is why most are snake oil sellers. It's been that way ever since cavemen were trading their things with other cavemen tribes. Today is no different. This is why I learn to trade based off of old trading books and ancient strategies. I really don't believe that the computers of today somehow have changed that aspect. Human nature remains the same and is reflected in the charts. It is simply a graph of the psychology of the masses.
  19. Daytrading free money thread

    /ES hitting 2940.4 and DIA hitting 265.93 on the same 5 min candle hit should be a short.
  20. Daytrading free money thread

    Jim Simons, creator of arguably the greatest hedge fund in the world, shuns the Wall Street types for their dogmatic thinking and hires PhDs, code breakers, and so on who have no financial experience, in order to improve his fund. Generally, out of the box stuff fails, but the best strategies are out of the box types in all competitive fields. Not that I'm saying mine is the best- but everyone has something they're good and bad at so just go with what works I guess.
  21. Daytrading free money thread

    You are right. It's stupid, but I got into a dumb argument with a guy on the internet who is legit rich with a mansion and all (he had proof) and we were arguing about methods on VXX. I said I'd go all in with my life savings if the setup presented itself just to prove a point and I posted the numbers for them to happen. It did just this morning as shown in the picture, VXX hit resistance at the same time DIA hit support. He then argued that I should have had went long vol and not long the indexes as per the methodology, and I said that wasn't the case due to the gap determining if something was support or resistance, and how could I have went long vol when there was no double hit? It was dumb, but whatever. I think I'll just leave from there. There are a lot of smart people there who know how to trade but none of them do it the way I do and so they just don't get it.
  22. Daytrading free money thread

    Hmm. From other trading forums, everyone have been saying this strategy is trash because it is doing technical analysis on a product, vol, that has no basis in doing so. Getting bashed pretty hard lol. No one believes.
  23. Daytrading free money thread

    VXX down over a percent in less than an hour. Yay
  24. Daytrading free money thread

    Looking at premarket prices, VXX will likely open under its previous price floor, becoming a ceiling. Therefore, it should decline. 26.68 appears to be the next support level and it can reach that this week.
  25. Daytrading free money thread

    Yes. There are so many discount brokers out there now. Robinhood is free- they sell your info and execution is terrible, can end up losing money from just that. On the other hand, ThinkOrSwim and Tastyworks is excellent- Tasty offers just a $1 commission per option contract per leg for a max of $10. Over 10 and the rest are free. $1.25 to open and $1.25 to close a futures contract too. ToS is not as cheap but offers way more in terms of charts, studies, etc. Some use a combination of both- having some holds in ToS to fill the minimum requirement in order to use their services then trade in a different brokerage.
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