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antispiral last won the day on October 1 2011

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About antispiral

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    Underworld Duelist

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  1. United States Presidential Election

    The Californian shift to Democrats is also possibly because of Pete Wilson's anti immigration proposition that passed in 1994 (later declared unconstitutional) and basically politically mobilized the hell out of the Hispanic demographic in California for the next decade+. Although tbh, I believe the state in general, whites, latinos, and other minorities alike, have been moving toward the Dem party. They've gotten stronger in the state level, and have retained their overwhelmingly state legislature lead despite a new bipartisan redistricting commission for 2011+.
  2. United States Presidential Election

    Helmut Norpoth was my professor and while he was a really nice guy, his model is pretty garbage. Relying on primaries to forecast the general election is a fool's game, and the fact that he is relying on retroactively fitted data to improve the prediction rate of his model is laughable. It's simply pretty poor science to make your model and proclaim its effectiveness based on years of history that you had the benefit of referring to when creating your model. Since his model has been published since 1996, he actually has a five election sample size, and one of his samples was actually wrong-- he predicted Gore in 2000, and he is hinging his "correct prediction" of 2000 on a technicality, since Gore won the popular vote. Here is his 2001 paper on what he got wrong. He's been making the rounds on Fox, The Hill, Reddit, etc. promoting his stuff, and I can't say that I blame him for cashing in. But there's really no reason to put that much faith in him or his model-- it's just not very good. For more of a giggle, here's him shitting on polling. He builds up strawmen about Dewey Defeats Truman and the National Exit Poll in 2004, when they're not too relevant to polling in the modern day. (Dewey v. Truman happened because polling methodology was much less mature and utilized quota sampling instead of random sampling and exit polling is very much a different beast from telephone polling).
  3. if you click on this topic you must post

      best friend probably got jealous that his gf was approached by someone. maybe even a fight. although you didn't do anything wrong, you and her hanging out (with others) is what got the situation started. that's probably why he said it was "weird." i don't think he wants a reminder atm, so he might be.   if that's the case, he'll probably come around. i don't think it would hurt to apologize about having a part (however small) in his jealousy or whatever.
  4. Monogatari Series: Second Season

        Well, I mean, when CR provides the best subs around (generally), I'm happy when a series is picked up by CR and then ripped by HorribleSubs. And it's not like other subbers don't exist and work on non-CR series-- they just don't feel like wasting manpower when CR does it, because CR releases will tend to be more popular than theirs.
  5. Monogatari Series: Second Season

    im gonna explode
  6. Hearthstone Random Talk Thread

      yay my first legend.
  7. I am now in Hong Kong to ram into the YOT

      what     btw, because he's in hk, they almost definitely used cantonese. hk also has a very strong base of english speakers though, so it's pretty easy to get by just speaking english.   and the portuguese egg tart thing is just not true sry.
  8. I am now in Hong Kong to ram into the YOT

      pretty easy. just go to the expat bars/ktv places.   you should try out egg tarts (daan taat). i think hk probably has the best ones and they're ubiquitous in the bakeries there. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egg_tart
  9. Hearthstone Random Talk Thread

    were your last two cards flamestrike lol
  10. Konami Duel Arena Beta Test Duelist Codes

    this is some nintendo friend code shit
  11. i had a full scholarship. i wanted to focus on classes and get through my school without working. sue me.   to anyone asking about career services... yea lol. i graduated.   They probably also help alumni-- just drop in and ask. At the very least, if they don't help consult on your stuff, you can find opportunities to network or avenues to pursue through the infrastructure there. Stop being obtuse and just go talk to them. 
  12. go to your uni's career center. it'll help you a lot more than anyone here. you'll be able to get some tangible cv/resume advice and get insights on job openings.
  13. Kuroko No Basuke

    kagami needs to open the door in order to achieve circle-less transmutations.
  14. Hearthstone Random Talk Thread

    its stats are in a great place. kills almost every other 4 drop in the game (other than pit lord, water ele, emerald drake, and the shitty high health ones). effect isn't mind bogglingly bad.     good card.     blood knight is better because you might be able to utilize its effect without your opponent playing into it. and the effect itself is more reliable because it isn't random.

    this motherfucker.   but i mean, he doesn't really owe us anything i guess. just a bummer, but i can't really fault him for wanting to fuck his wife/game for days/relax.   btw, it seems like it's coming back june 2. looking forward to it.