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United States Presidential Election

Candidates   142 members have voted

  1. 1. Who do you think SHOULD win?

  2. 2. Who do you think WILL win?

    • Bernie Sanders
    • Hillary Clinton
    • Donald Trump
    • Ted Cruz
    • Marco Rubio
    • Ben Carson
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    • John Kasich
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3409 posts in this topic

He's like all the best part of green and libertarian. I thought I was going to watch the first minute, giggle then look away but I stayed for the entire vid. Worth every second.

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y2Dz3.png

 

This looks about right.  Probably election outcome

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5 hours ago, Urthor said:

y2Dz3.png

 

This looks about right.  Probably election outcome

HRC wins Nevada. 

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1 hour ago, Joe. said:

HRC wins Nevada. 

 

Look at the top. 

 

If I was doing a realistic one, I would tentatively colour Nevada.  But Nevada is really split because there's a lot of low quality online polls that are giving Trump a big lead, whilst high quality phone polls favour Clinton, it would not be unsurprising for it to go either way.  It's a pivotal state for both control of the senate and the Federal election.  

 

I also wouldn't call Nevada locked in, look at 538.  Atm FL NC NV and NH are all split, and Trump has to win all 4 to win.  Ipsos, which is both a highly credible poll and one of the most Trump favoured polls in the previous three states, gives Clinton a big advantage in NH so that's the decider.

 

woRAe.png

 

This is HRC's worst case scenario for election day based off 538.  Unless there's a change between now and Tuesday, which there probably won't be because any real shit that could have been released last week so it could filter through.  Day before stuff isn't as effective because people won't have heard about it by the time they vote.  

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8 hours ago, Urthor said:

y2Dz3.png

 

This looks about right.  Probably election outcome

Nevada is gone unless GOP blows smoke out of washoe and Reno to offset clark, possible, but likely not enough. She's running behind Obama though.

 

CO, MI, and PA will be close, and MED2 is Trump

 

Dems FL EV lead is almost 100k votes less in 2016 than 2012. Obama won FL by 73k. HRC will not get Obama ED turnout

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Will be close isn't the same as likely to win

 

Those three won't be within reach.  It's so far out of the equation Clinton hasn't bothered to buy ads in Michigan.  Penn seems pretty much sewn up, ditto Colorado, they're slim but sure victories. 

 

The only path to victory is that he wins New Hampshire in my mind.  He absolutely needs to crack NH, and then win NC/NV/FL.  And there's just no way he's winning NH unless we get sudden new polling or something to shift the race, doesn't have the ground game there doesn't have the push.  In fact the door knockers for Hillary might mean she firms up in FL/NC/NV and takes all three, that's the big unknown.  Trump's hopes are based on him winning not one, not two, not three, but four coin flip states.  You don't have to be a math genius to see that flipping heads 4 times in a row is a longshot.  

 

 

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15 minutes ago, Urthor said:

Will be close isn't the same as likely to win

 

Those three won't be within reach.  It's so far out of the equation Clinton hasn't bothered to buy ads in Michigan.  Penn seems pretty much sewn up, ditto Colorado, they're slim but sure victories. 

 

The only path to victory is that he wins New Hampshire in my mind.  He absolutely needs to crack NH, and then win NC/NV/FL.  And there's just no way he's winning NH unless we get sudden new polling or something to shift the race, doesn't have the ground game there doesn't have the push.  In fact the door knockers for Hillary might mean she firms up in FL/NC/NV and takes all three, that's the big unknown.  Trump's hopes are based on him winning not one, not two, not three, but four coin flip states.  You don't have to be a math genius to see that flipping heads 4 times in a row is a longshot.  

 

 

Have you seen the new NH polls?

 

He either leads or ties in all of them 

 

I dislike the NH pathway because I'm honestly skeptical about Nevada, but Reno is based so let's see

 

 

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9 hours ago, Urthor said:

y2Dz3.png

 

This looks about right.  Probably election outcome

 

No. If HRC loses NH, she likely loses that working class 2nd district in ME (they're demographically+regionally correlated). This map is more plausible if you make that single tweak, which turns it into a 270-268 Trump win.

 

Note that Maine and Nebraska are the only 2 states that break up their electoral votes into districts.

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According to Nate Silver, there's a 35% chance of a Trump victory, which is honestly much higher than I anticipated. I thought it would wind up closer to 80:20. But there's a lot of uncertainty in uncommitted voters, polling has been volatile compared to recent elections, HRC is down to a 3 point national lead, and Trump has a better Electoral College path because his core supporters are over-represented in swing states compared to HRC's core. There are some X-factors that could save HRC or help her pull away (field ops, hispanics under-represented in polls), but there's a lot of uncertainty. Anyone who is confident about the results of this election is bullshitting/delusional at this point, and if they end up being right, they got lucky.

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Change in party shares of early votes from 2012 to 2016

STATE DEM Change GOP Change IND Change
Colorado green.png 0.60% red.png-1.80% green.png 1.20%
Florida red.png-3.42% green.png 0.45% green.png 2.97%
Iowa red.png-0.24% green.png 2.70% red.png-2.46%
Nevada red.png-1.97% red.png-0.50% green.png 2.47%
North Carolina red.png-6.27% green.png 0.88% green.png 5.38%

Raw data used to compute the above

State 2012 DEM % 2012 GOP % 2012 IND % 2012 Early Votes 2016 DEM % 2016 GOP % 2016 IND % 2016 DEM Early Votes 2016 GOP Early Votes 2016 IND Early Votes 2016 Early Votes
Colorado 35% 37% 28% 1,700,000.00 35.60% 35.20% 29.20% 546,816 540,672 448,512 1,536,000
Florida 43% 39% 18% 4,500,000.00 39.58% 39.45% 20.97% 2,268,663 2,261,383 1,201,715 5,731,761
Iowa 42% 32% 26% 640,000.00 41.76% 34.70% 23.54% 247,785 205,904 139,698 593,387
Nevada 44.5% 36.1% 19.4% 702,000.00 42.53% 35.60% 21.87% 297,677 249,114 153,061 699,851
North Carolina 48% 31% 21% 2,800,000.00 41.73% 31.88% 26.38% 1,292,771 987,771 817,385 3,097,927

 

Hmmm

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Guess bad EV numbers trigger people

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1 minute ago, Winter said:

Guess bad EV numbers trigger people

 

Or maybe it's because you posted black numbers on a background that they basically become invisible on?

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Just now, IRLAlex said:

 

Or maybe it's because you posted black numbers on a background that they basically become invisible on?

Didn't even realize that happened, sorry. DGz on a phone is a pain in the ass

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1 hour ago, Winter said:

Didn't even realize that happened, sorry. DGz on a phone is a pain in the ass

Off topic but this on the same page uter posts made me laugh. 

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wow that unbiased analysis has really swayed me. i think #imwithher now

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what on earth was biased about any of that

 

which part was wrong

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i imagine wumbos response to you will be along the lines of "it isnt what he gave us about them, its what he didnt give us about clinton"

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Something along the lines of "liberal" bias in the media when there is an equal amount of right bias everywhere else as well. I can't wait for this shitshow to be over though 

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LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL

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Those traitors will swing

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Did I winter well? 

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