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Francis J Underwood

The Official 2016-2017 NFL Season Thread

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fractal    2488

Francis, you keep forgetting that there are 2 groups of teams in the NFL: those with QBs, and those without. You don't win unless you have a good QB, or at least an average one with a really strong supporting cast (aka, Peyton last year, Dilfer, etc). There's also a problem with this whole "draft a QB" idea. If you don't win, you lose your job, so, winning the Super Bowl and then choosing some crappy QB won't sit well with ownership. Then, let's say you do go to draft. That QB you take has to work out or you lose your job. Let's examine the QBs taken in the top 3 rounds of the past 4 years, not including this past crop because one season doesn't really give too big of an indication, and even then you only have Mariota and Winston go 1-2, then Manion and Grayson in the 3rd.

 

1st round - Bortles, Manziel, Bridgewater, EJ Manuel, Luck, Tannehill, Weeden, RG3, Newton, Gabbert, Christian Ponder, 

2nd round - Carr, Garopollo, Geno Smith, Osweiler, Dalton, Kaepernick

3rd round - Mike Glennon, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, Ryan Mallett

 

Bold indicates "Franchise QB" status, or is considered a high quality QB. That's 6 out of 22 guys. It's not as simple as "just draft a guy".

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Yea and the teams with the pick have that option.  Basically Dallas, Cleveland, San Francisco, Los Angeles, have the option to do that, and are either going to or are gonna go to the quarterback pond.  From what I've read there's 3 potential mid-upper level QBs in this draft.   That leaves the Broncos, well, dead last.  

 

Will the Broncos do that?  Esp if those five pick 3 first round QBs?  Probs not, and considering that their defence is probably going to evaporate soonish after they go off contract, they'll sign Kaepernick to get results while they can, which is why all the media reports have been saying exactly that.  Added to the fact he's probably not literally awful if you put him in front of a not-49ers offence, then there's something there.  

I'm saying that by putting themselves in that position either via sucking or via trade up, they can get a QB especially if we have a situation like this year where the #1 pick doesn't need a QB. 

The issue with Kap is that not only does he cost draft equity, but cap (no pun intended) space as well which accelerates the decline. Ultimately, I don't think he's even an average QB. I could be wrong and maybe it was the talent around him, but if I am right, this isn't his play isn't going to offset that to make them competitive. Instead, it just puts the Broncos in a worse position than they already are. Idk to me the move reeks of desperation and chasing your losses. I'd much prefer a guy like Fitzpatrick over Kap (altho I get the arm strength argument as well as increased mobility)

 

As for the draft, the general consensus is that there aren't any prospects at QB that scouts like which is likely the cause of the panic. 

 

Francis, you keep forgetting that there are 2 groups of teams in the NFL: those with QBs, and those without. You don't win unless you have a good QB, or at least an average one with a really strong supporting cast (aka, Peyton last year, Dilfer, etc). There's also a problem with this whole "draft a QB" idea. If you don't win, you lose your job, so, winning the Super Bowl and then choosing some crappy QB won't sit well with ownership. Then, let's say you do go to draft. That QB you take has to work out or you lose your job. Let's examine the QBs taken in the top 3 rounds of the past 4 years, not including this past crop because one season doesn't really give too big of an indication, and even then you only have Mariota and Winston go 1-2, then Manion and Grayson in the 3rd.

 

1st round - Bortles, Manziel, Bridgewater, EJ Manuel, Luck, Tannehill, Weeden, RG3, Newton, Gabbert, Christian Ponder, 

2nd round - Carr, Garopollo, Geno Smith, Osweiler, Dalton, Kaepernick

3rd round - Mike Glennon, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, Ryan Mallett

 

Bold indicates "Franchise QB" status, or is considered a high quality QB. That's 6 out of 22 guys. It's not as simple as "just draft a guy".

Does having Kap move the Broncos out of the group with no QB? I don't think so. Your point on losing is valid, but Elway has more job security than most and more significantly he has other options that would cost less and would have just as much upside (RG3) or better take advantage of that window (Fitzpatrick)

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I get the argument for Kap, but what does he give, besides durability, that RG3 does not? Pretty much nothing and RG3 is infinitely cheaper. 

 

While Fitz may be a downgrade as a long term asset, and in arm strength, Fitz probably is better equipped than the above two to take advantage of the great defense during this limited window while the Broncos look for a QB. 

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Speaking of RG3, He is visiting the Jets today. 

 

I actually think this would be a good signing for the Jets. Gives them a young QB with a ton of upside. They have the talent around him to put him in a good position to win. Finally, Chan Gailey is a QB guru and can really design the offense around his strengths. 

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BuffCaddy    1

Speaking of RG3, He is visiting the Jets today. 

 

I actually think this would be a good signing for the Jets. Gives them a young QB with a ton of upside. They have the talent around him to put him in a good position to win. Finally, Chan Gailey is a QB guru and can really design the offense around his strengths. 

 

What happened to Bryce Petty?.. Lol

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fractal    2488

Dear god, RG3 is not a "young QB  with a ton of upside". He's a frail QB who lacks pocket presence and cannot read a defense. He has a strong arm, and he may have some speed left, but after two ACL tears, it's hard to really know. The offense he's best suited for, the read option, is largely dead, and only used sparingly (Seattle) by those who still run it, or crafted a game around a QB that can take the constant hits (Carolina). Jay Gruden spent two seasons trying to get RG3 to be a pocket QB, and in doing so, exposed just how flawed RG3 is as an NFL QB.

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BuffCaddy    1

I don't think much has changed in the NFL landscape over the last few weeks. It will be, barring catastrophic injuries, the same teams in the post season next year. Maybe the Ravens grab one of the wild card spots, and perhaps Dallas makes it back if Romo wears kevlar bulletproof armor all year. or maybe the Giants make it in with their billion dollar FA team. Other than that, none of the other teams have convinced me that they a) have the firepower, or more importantly  b) know how to win.

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fractal    2488
Denver is definitely worse. No good QB, lost Anderson, Trevathan, Jackson. You can argue that the QBs were bad last year, but I expect their defense to have a little drop off due to age (Ware, Talib) and losing Jackson. Definitely still going to be a good defense, but probably dropped back into the 5-10 range, and the offense hasn't gotten better.

Like what Oakland and Jacksonville have done, but not sure the Jax D is good enough to take the division yet, and Oakland needs some DB help and a complement for Cooper. If they could get just one guy with some speed, that would be perfect. Rivera, Cooper, X rook speedster would be a nice core to grow with.

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Dear god, RG3 is not a "young QB  with a ton of upside". He's a frail QB who lacks pocket presence and cannot read a defense. He has a strong arm, and he may have some speed left, but after two ACL tears, it's hard to really know. The offense he's best suited for, the read option, is largely dead, and only used sparingly (Seattle) by those who still run it, or crafted a game around a QB that can take the constant hits (Carolina). Jay Gruden spent two seasons trying to get RG3 to be a pocket QB, and in doing so, exposed just how flawed RG3 is as an NFL QB.

See I'm not exactly sure I buy into that. Remember, RG3 was one of the best overall prospects a lot of evaluators have ever graded and was identical to Luck in terms of everything but injury and arm strength (the latter of which he was better). There is no way reading defenses, and white board work wasn't a part of that. 

 

RG3 has good accuracy, a cannon for an arm, and the ability to make plays outside of the pocket. The issue is processing speed more than anything else. On tape, he looks like he has to see things get open before he throws it. He doesn't anticipate well nor is willing to challenge tighter windows. That would explain why he holds the ball too long and takes a ton of hits. I feel like those can be addressed via scheme.

 

I agree in that the less reads he has to make, the better he is, but given shot gun and spread formations prevalence, you can say that about a few QBs (Matt Ryan comes to mind given his clear regression in his first year under center in that type of offense). 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9Gf77afvhM

 

The highlight video basically illustrates what I'm talking about. Almost every throw (i think all but one) came when a wideout was wide open. Griffin generally didn't have to anticipate or challenge a tight window to connect on a pass. The majority of these are also vs zone coverage. Against man to man many of those conditions don't show up and given RG3 is overly conservative in recognizing what is a challengeable passing window and does not anticipate well to throw receivers open that way, that likely is the issue. 

 

 

To be fair, Rg3 missed large chunks of time due to health so he probably only got 25 - 50% of that time in the system. Additionally, Gruden basically undermined him every single chance he got so it's not like Gruden was doing everything in his power to make him successful imo. 

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Denver is definitely worse. No good QB, lost Anderson, Trevathan, Jackson. You can argue that the QBs were bad last year, but I expect their defense to have a little drop off due to age (Ware, Talib) and losing Jackson. Definitely still going to be a good defense, but probably dropped back into the 5-10 range, and the offense hasn't gotten better.

Like what Oakland and Jacksonville have done, but not sure the Jax D is good enough to take the division yet, and Oakland needs some DB help and a complement for Cooper. If they could get just one guy with some speed, that would be perfect. Rivera, Cooper, X rook speedster would be a nice core to grow with.

I don't think Anderson is that big of a loss. Losing Travathan, Marshall, Jackson is going to hurt them more than they think. Osweiler is eh. I feel like he can be replaced. I have them at 6-7 wins. 

 

Oakland is interesting. Osemele is clearly an overypay but investing in their franchise QB is never bad. Really strong o line now. Sean Smith was the best signing tho. 10 mil a yr for a guy with freaky freaky measurables that fit the new nfl model for corner. Oakland has Crabtree to compliment Cooper who is a perfect fit for the west coast offense. 

 

Jax got their guy, but the defense is definitely a question mark despite the signings. If their draft follows previous ones, then this should be a much improved team on that side of the ball. They really need more DBs. They could also use another pass rusher. Jax seems set on being fiscally responsible and making smart signings instead of the one they want potentially (difference between Oakland and Jax)

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Angeles    213
Martavis Bryant's dumbass is out for a year for substance abuse. These guys never learn. This is also prior to an appeal.

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fractal    2488

 

Dear god, RG3 is not a "young QB  with a ton of upside". He's a frail QB who lacks pocket presence and cannot read a defense. He has a strong arm, and he may have some speed left, but after two ACL tears, it's hard to really know. The offense he's best suited for, the read option, is largely dead, and only used sparingly (Seattle) by those who still run it, or crafted a game around a QB that can take the constant hits (Carolina). Jay Gruden spent two seasons trying to get RG3 to be a pocket QB, and in doing so, exposed just how flawed RG3 is as an NFL QB.

See I'm not exactly sure I buy into that. Remember, RG3 was one of the best overall prospects a lot of evaluators have ever graded and was identical to Luck in terms of everything but injury and arm strength (the latter of which he was better). There is no way reading defenses, and white board work wasn't a part of that. 

 

RG3 has good accuracy, a cannon for an arm, and the ability to make plays outside of the pocket. The issue is processing speed more than anything else. On tape, he looks like he has to see things get open before he throws it. He doesn't anticipate well nor is willing to challenge tighter windows. That would explain why he holds the ball too long and takes a ton of hits. I feel like those can be addressed via scheme.

 

I agree in that the less reads he has to make, the better he is, but given shot gun and spread formations prevalence, you can say that about a few QBs (Matt Ryan comes to mind given his clear regression in his first year under center in that type of offense). 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9Gf77afvhM

 

The highlight video basically illustrates what I'm talking about. Almost every throw (i think all but one) came when a wideout was wide open. Griffin generally didn't have to anticipate or challenge a tight window to connect on a pass. The majority of these are also vs zone coverage. Against man to man many of those conditions don't show up and given RG3 is overly conservative in recognizing what is a challengeable passing window and does not anticipate well to throw receivers open that way, that likely is the issue. 

 

 

To be fair, Rg3 missed large chunks of time due to health so he probably only got 25 - 50% of that time in the system. Additionally, Gruden basically undermined him every single chance he got so it's not like Gruden was doing everything in his power to make him successful imo. 

 

 

And that right there is why he won't be successful. If he can't throw guys open, and can't make anticipatory throws, then even a spread offense won't help him. A lot of those routes will require him to anticipate guys coming out of breaks and throw some tight windows. The only throws he'll be able to make will be vertical outside routes, and short crossers. Anything too much more complex, and he'll end up holding it too long. I don't think scheme can make up for his issues. 

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/01/02/rg3-took-sacks-last-season-at-a-historic-rate/

 

He has taken a ridiculous amount of sacks his entire career, even when he had guys running free. There have been 2 head coaches that have questioned his work ethic, and one of them was the guy who took him 2nd overall and changed the offense for him. We also just had Chris Cooley rip him apart for being incredibly selfish. Also, it seems pretty important that not one team seriously inquired about trading for him, and he hasn't signed quickly either, which all indicates to me that teams don't view him as the super-athletic talent with no ceiling they did when he came out of the draft. How much of that is injury, I'm not sure, but either way, no one is jumping to give him a chance. It's pretty telling that Elway wants Kaepernick and his big money deal (even if it is very team friendly) over RG3. Also, I view Kaepernick as a better physical talent than RG3. He's a little thicker, strong arm, speed, but has some accuracy and touch issues, as well as sharing the shortcomings of a pocket QB that RG3 does, though he does have a much better feel for the pocket. I feel like Kaep is far more salvageable than RG3.

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Dear god, RG3 is not a "young QB  with a ton of upside". He's a frail QB who lacks pocket presence and cannot read a defense. He has a strong arm, and he may have some speed left, but after two ACL tears, it's hard to really know. The offense he's best suited for, the read option, is largely dead, and only used sparingly (Seattle) by those who still run it, or crafted a game around a QB that can take the constant hits (Carolina). Jay Gruden spent two seasons trying to get RG3 to be a pocket QB, and in doing so, exposed just how flawed RG3 is as an NFL QB.

See I'm not exactly sure I buy into that. Remember, RG3 was one of the best overall prospects a lot of evaluators have ever graded and was identical to Luck in terms of everything but injury and arm strength (the latter of which he was better). There is no way reading defenses, and white board work wasn't a part of that. 

 

RG3 has good accuracy, a cannon for an arm, and the ability to make plays outside of the pocket. The issue is processing speed more than anything else. On tape, he looks like he has to see things get open before he throws it. He doesn't anticipate well nor is willing to challenge tighter windows. That would explain why he holds the ball too long and takes a ton of hits. I feel like those can be addressed via scheme.

 

I agree in that the less reads he has to make, the better he is, but given shot gun and spread formations prevalence, you can say that about a few QBs (Matt Ryan comes to mind given his clear regression in his first year under center in that type of offense). 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9Gf77afvhM

 

The highlight video basically illustrates what I'm talking about. Almost every throw (i think all but one) came when a wideout was wide open. Griffin generally didn't have to anticipate or challenge a tight window to connect on a pass. The majority of these are also vs zone coverage. Against man to man many of those conditions don't show up and given RG3 is overly conservative in recognizing what is a challengeable passing window and does not anticipate well to throw receivers open that way, that likely is the issue. 

 

 

To be fair, Rg3 missed large chunks of time due to health so he probably only got 25 - 50% of that time in the system. Additionally, Gruden basically undermined him every single chance he got so it's not like Gruden was doing everything in his power to make him successful imo. 

 

 

And that right there is why he won't be successful. If he can't throw guys open, and can't make anticipatory throws, then even a spread offense won't help him. A lot of those routes will require him to anticipate guys coming out of breaks and throw some tight windows. The only throws he'll be able to make will be vertical outside routes, and short crossers. Anything too much more complex, and he'll end up holding it too long. I don't think scheme can make up for his issues. 

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/01/02/rg3-took-sacks-last-season-at-a-historic-rate/

 

He has taken a ridiculous amount of sacks his entire career, even when he had guys running free. There have been 2 head coaches that have questioned his work ethic, and one of them was the guy who took him 2nd overall and changed the offense for him. We also just had Chris Cooley rip him apart for being incredibly selfish. Also, it seems pretty important that not one team seriously inquired about trading for him, and he hasn't signed quickly either, which all indicates to me that teams don't view him as the super-athletic talent with no ceiling they did when he came out of the draft. How much of that is injury, I'm not sure, but either way, no one is jumping to give him a chance. It's pretty telling that Elway wants Kaepernick and his big money deal (even if it is very team friendly) over RG3. Also, I view Kaepernick as a better physical talent than RG3. He's a little thicker, strong arm, speed, but has some accuracy and touch issues, as well as sharing the shortcomings of a pocket QB that RG3 does, though he does have a much better feel for the pocket. I feel like Kaep is far more salvageable than RG3.

 

Yea but that is completely different than what you were saying regarding his ability to read a defense (even if he did have a solid read, he likely wasnt allowed to change the play.) I feel like that one is correctable if you go to a guy like Gailey who will just allow him to let it rip rather than overly stress not turning the ball over the point it hinders the offense which Shanahan did. 

 

Yea I don't trust a word of what Cooley says especially when current teammates say the opposite. DeAngelo Hall being notable. 

 

No one inquired about trading for any QB, they expect the franchise to cut. What's your point? The reason they don't inquire is why would you give up something when you could get it for nothing. 

 

I don't know what to make of teams not signing him. My guess is its money more than anything else. Do you honestly think there are teams that wouldn't want a guy like that as a backup? Whether you think he is a franchise guy or not, he would be one of the leagues better backups. 

 

Kaepernick's deal is extremely team friendly and locked in. That probably is driving his market more than you think. 

 

I disagree with Kap being more salvageable. He has almost 0 pocket awareness (definitely less than RG3 who is a little quick to leave under duress), he clearly gets rattled if the game doesn't go his way (guy fucking missed an uncovered torrey smith for an easy 90 yard TD pre-snap. Didn't even look at his side of the field and got taken down for a safety. Play was vs the Rams iirc). I have always said this and I'll keep saying it, the only reason Kap is seen as good (in the past) is because the team around him had all-pros at every single position. Basically he was the equivalent of Peyton Manning in terms of a passer (different weakness but same idea) and the team around him was so fantastic that it didn't matter. 

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fractal    2488
This past year really doesn't count for SF. Look at that God awful coaching staff. Who knows wtf he was and wasn't allowed to do. Also, how do you say he has less pocket awareness than RG3, when RG3 took sacks at a near historic rate, while Kaep never has? If anything, Kaep has a tendency to leave the pocket quickly, and this past year was a result of him forcing himself to prove he's a pocket QB by standing in a little too long. As far as talent is concerned, RG3 has never dominates a game anywhere near the way Kaep has (Green Bay games, vs NE, etc). They both have issues as cerebrally, but RG3 has injury issues, no one has ever called out Kaep's work ethic, and Kaep is closer to being a functional pocket QB than RG3 has shown. Also, you trade for a guy you think may be the future for you, even when you know he's going to be cut, to make sure you're the team with his rights if you think others will be seriously interested. So, if you think RG3 is the superior prospect, and he'll be cheaper than Kaepernick, and NFL teams think differently, then you have to reevaluate what you see. Also, of course current teammates aren't going to throw RG3 under the bus. Not like we haven't heard stories about locker room dysfunction with him in the past. Oh wait... Pretty much ever since the end of his rookie season.

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This past year really doesn't count for SF. Look at that God awful coaching staff. Who knows wtf he was and wasn't allowed to do. Also, how do you say he has less pocket awareness than RG3, when RG3 took sacks at a near historic rate, while Kaep never has? If anything, Kaep has a tendency to leave the pocket quickly, and this past year was a result of him forcing himself to prove he's a pocket QB by standing in a little too long. As far as talent is concerned, RG3 has never dominates a game anywhere near the way Kaep has (Green Bay games, vs NE, etc). They both have issues as cerebrally, but RG3 has injury issues, no one has ever called out Kaep's work ethic, and Kaep is closer to being a functional pocket QB than RG3 has shown. Also, you trade for a guy you think may be the future for you, even when you know he's going to be cut, to make sure you're the team with his rights if you think others will be seriously interested. So, if you think RG3 is the superior prospect, and he'll be cheaper than Kaepernick, and NFL teams think differently, then you have to reevaluate what you see. Also, of course current teammates aren't going to throw RG3 under the bus. Not like we haven't heard stories about locker room dysfunction with him in the past. Oh wait... Pretty much ever since the end of his rookie season.

yea Im pretty sure even Kap/Torrey aren't dumb enough to run the play as intended when literally the fastest player on your team is left completely uncovered pre-snap. Yeah it's one egregiously bad play, but it basically sums up the type of player Kap is. 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vx1eiYaMQ-8

 

I take it back. Even worse than I thought. Two open receivers with one screaming at him " Hey moron, I'm wide fucking open" 

 

Taking sacks at a historic rate =/= lack of pocket presence. It does = indecisiveness. If you look at RG3's avg time to throw its pretty high. You hold on to the ball long enough, that's going to happen. That's not because he couldn't feel pressure, it's because he couldn't pick a target to get the ball out to. 

 

I disagree with Kap being a better pocket passer than RG3 based on the tape. I will say Kap has tried a little harder at it, but again square peg, round hole. 

 

RG3 has had games like that his rookie year (Dal on thanksgiving, minnesota etc...) And also let's compare the supporting cast around the two. The Skins have had all of nobody and the 49ers had all pros at every position. Think that had anything to do with it? 

 

I mean don't forget the teams trading for Kap (with the exception of the Jets which is a smokescreen in all liklihood) all wanted to draft Kaepernik when he was coming out. Now they can get him on a locked in contract that is an excellent value given its essentially a series of one year prove it deals that the team can get out of at any time. 

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Angeles    213


Nice add.

Yea after I heard he was visiting NE today, I was like aw fuck here we go. Kinda shocked he chose Baltimore over NE and Oakland who both probably offered more. 
 
Here's hoping we add Wallace. 

Your wish came true. 2 years/11.5 mil reportedly.
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Nice add.

Yea after I heard he was visiting NE today, I was like aw fuck here we go. Kinda shocked he chose Baltimore over NE and Oakland who both probably offered more. 
 
Here's hoping we add Wallace. 

Your wish came true. 2 years/11.5 mil reportedly.

 

Cool now we should be able to chuck it down field. 

 

Also

 

Breaking: NE Patriots send Chandler Jones to Arizona for a 2nd round pick and Johnathan Cooper

 

 

Guessing this has to do with his contract, but overall I'm not sure how I feel about NE with this deal. If belichick can get Cooper to live up to his potential, then its a win for him, but if not, you have to think Arizona got the better end of this. 

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