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Francis J Underwood

The Official 2017-2018 NFL Season Thread

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+mmf    23472

who still talkin shit about the texans

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+mmf    23472

WHO

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Jazz    5066

Excited for the Jeff Fisher bowl next week

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tautou    4

Jacksonville at New England

Although Jacksonville has the type of defense that has given Tom Brady fits in the past, Ben Roethlisberger has shown it can be exploited.

 

- With the way New England managed to shutdown Derrick Henry and Leonard Fournette's health in question, Jacksonville will need a strong performance from Blake Bortles, which is a tall order: of the seven AFC Championships New England has hosted, they are 6-1 and have been a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks (seven touchdowns to thirteen interceptions). The lone quarterback was Joe Flacco in 2012, and he also happens to be the only one that didn't have a turnover. Bortles is coming off a solid performance in Pittsburgh, but let's not forget how poorly he played against Buffalo in the wildcard round.

 

Minnesota at Philadelphia

I honestly don't know much about either team, but Minnesota's defense is too good to lose here and they're the straight up better team.

Edited by tautou

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Jacksonville Jaguars over New England Patriots. 

 

I'm not being trendy by making this pick. I genuinely think this is a matchup that NE will struggle with. Simply put, this is a bad matchup for NE. The Jaguars defense really doesn't have any flaws. They have the league's 2nd ranked rush and a historically great pass D. New England doesn't have the weapons that Pittsburgh has. Further Jacksonville's D is the type of defense that Belichick can't scheme around. They don't disguise or hide their coverage. They dictate what they will do to the offense and bet that their guys are better than your guys. The pass rush of the Jags might also force Gronkowski to stay in and block which will compound the issues their receivers will have against Bouye and Ramsey.  

 

On offense, Jacksonville does the one thing New England doesn't defend well - running the ball heavily. Although NE has a major weakness in setting the edge, they have not faced a back like Fournette. They will keep pounding it and tire the NE defense out. 

 

X-Factors - James White & Rob Gronkowski vs Myles Jack and Telvin Smith. New England's best bet is to attack slot corners Aaron Colvin and Linebackers Myles Jack and Telvin Smith. However, none of these matchups are good. Indeed, this is much like the vaunted Denver Defense of 2015 except, these linebackers excel in coverage. 

 

Ultimately, I don't believe that NE has the weapons or the offensive line that Pitt had. Further I don't think that Belichick can scheme to make up for that in this type of matchup. If the Jaguars can make their tackles, I expect the game will be very similar to the 1st half of the Pitt game. 

 

Minnesota Vikings  over Philadelphia Eagles 

 

Falcons D let that game slip away. Vikings D won't be as forgiving. 

 

 

 

Edited by Francis J Underwood

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BuildTheWalia    197

 

19 minutes ago, ZeroPassion said:

Pats > Jags

 

One reason, and one reason alone.

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

ftfy

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tautou    4
Quote

The Jaguars defense really doesn't have any flaws. They have the league's 2nd ranked rush and a historically great pass D.


Outside of the final drive that ended up being garbage time, Roethlisberger dropped 384 yards and 4 touchdowns. San Francisco's offense scored 37 points (Bortles throwing three picks had a lot to do with that, but that'll be a point I'll bring up soon) and Jimmy Garoppolo had an efficient day.

 

No defense, let alone team, is without flaws. For example, Jacksonville is pretty weak against the run and ended the season ranked behind New England (though to be fair, Jacksonville allowed 4.3 YPC to NE's 4.7). NE looks to be getting Rex Burkhead back to go along with Dion Lewis and James White. They've also struggled against tight ends. If you struggle against Vance McDonald, have fun against Gronk.

 

The secret behind their defense is that they've played against a LOT of crap offenses. 20 of their 55 sacks (36%) came in week 1 against Houston and week 7 against Indianapolis alone. To put things in perspective, if you were to factor out week 7, Indianapolis would still be in the top ten for sacks allowed for the whole season and would be on pace for nearly 50.

 

Quote

On offense, Jacksonville does the one thing New England doesn't defend well - running the ball heavily. Although NE has a major weakness in setting the edge, they have not faced a back like Fournette. They will keep pounding it and tire the NE defense out.

 

They just limited Derrick Henry to 28 yards, with his longest run going for four yards, without Alan Branch. Branch coming back will be a huge boost to their run defense. If Dick LeBeau can hold Jacksonville to less <20 points, I'm pretty sure Matt Patricia can do the same.

 

Fournette is overrated. Outside of his games against LAR and Pittsburgh, he only averaged 3.3 YPC and got banged up again against Pittsburgh. Belichick has shown numerous times he can take away the opposing team's top weapon. If that does happen and Jacksonville has to lean on Bortles' arm, they have a problem:

 

When Bortles throws <30 passes: 5-0, 76/117, 1144 yards, 7 TD, INT, 113.3

When Bortles throws >=30 passes: 5-6, 239/406, 2543 yards, 14 TD, 12 INT, 76.4

Edited by tautou
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Jazz    5066

The Dion Lewis + Gronk cannot be stopped. The Jags are equipped to stop an offense that relies heavily on its exterior WRs, not these guys. Sure the pass rush is world class, but a pass rush matters less when you're throwing shorter passes.

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tautou    4
28 minutes ago, Jazz said:

The Dion Lewis + Gronk cannot be stopped. The Jags are equipped to stop an offense that relies heavily on its exterior WRs, not these guys. Sure the pass rush is world class, but a pass rush matters less when you're throwing shorter passes.


The craziest thing about Lewis is that NE is 27-3 when he's active.

Edited by tautou

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7 hours ago, tautou said:


Outside of the final drive that ended up being garbage time, Roethlisberger dropped 384 yards and 4 touchdowns. San Francisco's offense scored 37 points and Jimmy Garoppolo had an efficient day. No defense, let alone team, is without flaws. For example, Jacksonville is pretty weak against the run and ranked behind New England (though to be fair, Jacksonville allowed 4.3 YPC to NE's 4.7). NE looks to be getting Rex Burkhead back to go along with Dion Lewis and James White. They've also struggled against tight ends. If you struggle against Vance McDonald, have fun against Gronk.

 

The secret behind their defense is that they've played against a LOT of crap offenses. 20 of their 55 sacks (36%) came in week 1 against Houston and week 7 against Indianapolis alone. To put things in perspective, if you were to factor out week 7, Indianapolis would still be in the top ten for sacks allowed for the whole season and would be on pace for nearly 50.

 

 

They just limited Derrick Henry to 28 yards, with his longest run going for four yards, without Alan Branch. Branch coming back will be a huge boost to their run defense. If Dick LeBeau can hold Jacksonville to less <20 points, I'm pretty sure Matt Patricia can do the same.

 

Fournette is overrated. Outside of his games against LAR and Pittsburgh, he only averaged 3.3 YPC and got banged up again against Pittsburgh. Belichick has shown numerous times he can take away the opposing team's top weapon. If that does happen and Jacksonville has to lean on Bortles' arm, they have a problem:

 

When Bortles throws <30 passes: 5-0, 76/117, 1144 yards, 7 TD, INT, 113.3

When Bortles throws >=30 passes: 5-6, 239/406, 2543 yards, 14 TD, 12 INT, 76.4

 

Jimmy G was the exception not the rule. Not like the Jags had a ton to play for. 

 

Idk what you're citing for Jacksonville's Rush D, but I'm guessing it's an aggregate which is worthless since they are completely different rush D post week 12 (marcel dareus acquisition). http://jaguarswire.usatoday.com/2017/11/20/jaguars-rushing-defense-makes-a-drastic-jump-from-week-11-to-week-12/ - Won't bash you on it yet as I'll let you provide the evidence underlying that basis before coming to a conclusion. 

 

I don't think Jacksonville struggles against Tight Ends. Your post on Vance McDonald leads me to believe you fell for the classic correlation =/= causation. Vance McDonald had 112 on 16 targets (catching 10). That's 7 YPA and essentially means he was a check down target. He got 5 more targets than Antonio Brown who was infinitely more efficient (11 targets for 132 catching 7). Jacksonville's corners and pass rush are so good that they funnel and force check down targets. So this argument seems like it doesn't hold much water. 

 

Divisional Oppns consistently play each other better than non-divisional oppns so that explains that one. 

 

Box score scouting =/= qualitative scouting. Yes they play shit offenses, but their corners are playing at a high level (only Antonio Brown has beaten Bouye for a score, Ramsey is Ramsey). Their linebackers are able to keep up with rbs and tight ends and the way they play D, you don't really scheme around it. It's no different than Seattle where they tell you what they are going to do and what they will give up and just bet on their guys being better than your guys. 

 

Fournette isn't overrated and teams clearly dont view him as overrated when Fournette faces more 8 man boxes than any other runner in the league. http://www.espn.com/blog/jacksonville-jaguars/post/_/id/22949/why-success-of-leonard-fournette-led-run-game-is-even-more-impressive (this is about halfway through the season, I'll see if I can find the full one on pff later, but it gives you an idea). Again, this is why box score scouting doesn't give you the whole story. Fournette commands an absurd amount of attention and acts as a literal battering ram. Because he commands this amount of attention, Bortles has much easier throws than he would normally. Now Belichick may opt to make Bortles beat him, but this basically plays into what the Jaguars want anyway, which is to give Bortles easy throws to make. Whether he can or not is beside the point. 

 

Finally, your stats on Bortles gamesplits also suffer a similar issue as they are out of context. I'm going to bet in those 6 losses the Jags were playing from behind which leads to more throws (the same for any QB). 

 

Tom Brady => 35 times  = 8-3

Tom Brady <= 35 times = 5-0

 

Did Brady perform better than Bortles? Yes. 

Did he generally perform worse when he threw the ball more? Yes 

 

This isn't to compare Brady to Bortles but just to illustrate that teams who throw ball do so because they are generally in a losing position that forces them to do so. 

Edited by Francis J Underwood

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tautou    4

I should have only typed three words why I picked NE: Tom Motherfucking Brady

Edited by tautou
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Haruki    9163

eli-manning-super-bowl-mvp.jpg

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Jazz    5066
1 hour ago, Haruki said:

eli-manning-super-bowl-mvp.jpg

 

Giants blow it's been 7 years nobody cares

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2 hours ago, BuildTheWalia said:

Well Well WELL

Jags beat themselves with penalties. As far as I'm concerned, I called that game pretty accurately. I can't account for the corners getting handsey and thats obviously not something Belichick schemed. Teams make mistakes. It happens. 

 

Jags LB won against Gronk (for what he was worth when in) and the rbs (largely ineffective). 

Edited by Francis J Underwood

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Jazz    5066
12 hours ago, Francis J Underwood said:

Jags beat themselves with penalties. As far as I'm concerned, I called that game pretty accurately. I can't account for the corners getting handsey and thats obviously not something Belichick schemed. Teams make mistakes. It happens. 

 

Jags LB won against Gronk (for what he was worth when in) and the rbs (largely ineffective). 

 

Not entirely. What you posted made the game competitive but didn't make it a clear Jags victory.

 

Cooks was getting separation consistently which I did not expect. Frankly nobody did. He ran some unbelievable routes, particularly his come backers.

 

Amendola having success in the slot was fairly predictable. This was the weak spot relative to the other spots in the Jags secondary. He can really turn it on when it counts, his problem has always been durability.

 

Gronk had a few chunk yardage plays and seemed to draw double teams / safety shaded over the top. Even if he's not racking up catches that's a win schematically. He was going to make the catch rather easily on the hit he took that left him concussed. Having him on the game for only one half was fortunate for the Jaguars (just as the Titans only won because Kelce got knocked out in the WC game). I think the non-PI PI to cooks on the next play was a bit of a make up call because that Gronk play should have been a 35 yard gain and they only got 15 yards on the penalty. That rule needs to be changed to award the ball at the spot of the foul if it would be greater than the 15 yard penalty.

 

The run game was terrible. Good call. The screen game however was quite effective.

 

The Jags needed fumble luck to make the game as close as it was 2 fumbles went the Jags way (one on offense and one on defense).

 

The Pats took a knee on the final possession while if they needed to, they could have racked up more points.

 

The Pats passed on a 4th and 1 in the first quarter and a 4th and 2 in the 4th quarter because Jacksonville's offensive success was largely limited to two drives in the first 20 minutes.

 

All this made the Jags +7.5 a strong bet and that's why they covered, but Jags money line on the road in NE, having played a very weak schedule of offensive teams and shown high various in defensive success (3rd highest points allowed variance), made that bet a bit silly.

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Jazz    5066

It looks like the Vikings got hit with a classic letdown spot which is fucking crazy for a conference championship game. Amazing and lucky win at home, followed by a short road favorite against a much stronger defense. Possibly looking ahead to having the Super Bowl back at home. What a flat and embarrassing performance.

 

I think everyone who said the Vikings had a better roster than the Eagles hasn't paid attention to the Eagles at all this season. I thought the Vikings should be favorites because I thought Keenum was an edge over Foles, but Foles played the game of his life. Foles has shown flashes of brilliance before and he might fall into the category of being a streaky QB. I think he can do it again in the Super Bowl.

 

The current line of Pats +5.5 is too high. Philly has a better roster and defense, Pats have a better QB, and it's on a neutral site. The line should be Pats +3 but the public will take the Pats because they are the Pats. I think the line is going to stay at +5.5 because sharps would hammer +6. If it somehow creeps up to +6 I would place a bet on the Eagles. I like the Pats to win the game but that line is ridiculous.

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Jazz    5066

Also I'm fairly sure that the current line does not take into account the chance that gronk misses the game. I'm assuming the public will treat Gronk as a probable, but in all honesty I think it's truly like 60:40. Players miss multiple weeks from concussions all the time. It might be smart to take the Eagles before Gronk news comes out because I don't think that line accounts for any uncertainty on his status which definitely exists. He's worth a point on the spread I'd say.

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