Jump to content
Francis J Underwood

The Official 2017-2018 NFL Season Thread

Recommended Posts

+mmf    23367

who still talkin shit about the texans

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
+mmf    23367

WHO

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Jazz    4952

Excited for the Jeff Fisher bowl next week

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
tautou    4

Jacksonville at New England

Although Jacksonville has the type of defense that has given Tom Brady fits in the past, Ben Roethlisberger has shown it can be exploited.

 

- With the way New England managed to shutdown Derrick Henry and Leonard Fournette's health in question, Jacksonville will need a strong performance from Blake Bortles, which is a tall order: of the seven AFC Championships New England has hosted, they are 6-1 and have been a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks (seven touchdowns to thirteen interceptions). The lone quarterback was Joe Flacco in 2012, and he also happens to be the only one that didn't have a turnover. Bortles is coming off a solid performance in Pittsburgh, but let's not forget how poorly he played against Buffalo in the wildcard round.

 

Minnesota at Philadelphia

I honestly don't know much about either team, but Minnesota's defense is too good to lose here and they're the straight up better team.

Edited by tautou

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jacksonville Jaguars over New England Patriots. 

 

I'm not being trendy by making this pick. I genuinely think this is a matchup that NE will struggle with. Simply put, this is a bad matchup for NE. The Jaguars defense really doesn't have any flaws. They have the league's 2nd ranked rush and a historically great pass D. New England doesn't have the weapons that Pittsburgh has. Further Jacksonville's D is the type of defense that Belichick can't scheme around. They don't disguise or hide their coverage. They dictate what they will do to the offense and bet that their guys are better than your guys. The pass rush of the Jags might also force Gronkowski to stay in and block which will compound the issues their receivers will have against Bouye and Ramsey.  

 

On offense, Jacksonville does the one thing New England doesn't defend well - running the ball heavily. Although NE has a major weakness in setting the edge, they have not faced a back like Fournette. They will keep pounding it and tire the NE defense out. 

 

X-Factors - James White & Rob Gronkowski vs Myles Jack and Telvin Smith. New England's best bet is to attack slot corners Aaron Colvin and Linebackers Myles Jack and Telvin Smith. However, none of these matchups are good. Indeed, this is much like the vaunted Denver Defense of 2015 except, these linebackers excel in coverage. 

 

Ultimately, I don't believe that NE has the weapons or the offensive line that Pitt had. Further I don't think that Belichick can scheme to make up for that in this type of matchup. If the Jaguars can make their tackles, I expect the game will be very similar to the 1st half of the Pitt game. 

 

Minnesota Vikings  over Philadelphia Eagles 

 

Falcons D let that game slip away. Vikings D won't be as forgiving. 

 

 

 

Edited by Francis J Underwood

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
tautou    4
Quote

The Jaguars defense really doesn't have any flaws. They have the league's 2nd ranked rush and a historically great pass D.


Outside of the final drive that ended up being garbage time, Roethlisberger dropped 384 yards and 4 touchdowns. San Francisco's offense scored 37 points (Bortles throwing three picks had a lot to do with that, but that'll be a point I'll bring up soon) and Jimmy Garoppolo had an efficient day.

 

No defense, let alone team, is without flaws. For example, Jacksonville is pretty weak against the run and ended the season ranked behind New England (though to be fair, Jacksonville allowed 4.3 YPC to NE's 4.7). NE looks to be getting Rex Burkhead back to go along with Dion Lewis and James White. They've also struggled against tight ends. If you struggle against Vance McDonald, have fun against Gronk.

 

The secret behind their defense is that they've played against a LOT of crap offenses. 20 of their 55 sacks (36%) came in week 1 against Houston and week 7 against Indianapolis alone. To put things in perspective, if you were to factor out week 7, Indianapolis would still be in the top ten for sacks allowed for the whole season and would be on pace for nearly 50.

 

Quote

On offense, Jacksonville does the one thing New England doesn't defend well - running the ball heavily. Although NE has a major weakness in setting the edge, they have not faced a back like Fournette. They will keep pounding it and tire the NE defense out.

 

They just limited Derrick Henry to 28 yards, with his longest run going for four yards, without Alan Branch. Branch coming back will be a huge boost to their run defense. If Dick LeBeau can hold Jacksonville to less <20 points, I'm pretty sure Matt Patricia can do the same.

 

Fournette is overrated. Outside of his games against LAR and Pittsburgh, he only averaged 3.3 YPC and got banged up again against Pittsburgh. Belichick has shown numerous times he can take away the opposing team's top weapon. If that does happen and Jacksonville has to lean on Bortles' arm, they have a problem:

 

When Bortles throws <30 passes: 5-0, 76/117, 1144 yards, 7 TD, INT, 113.3

When Bortles throws >=30 passes: 5-6, 239/406, 2543 yards, 14 TD, 12 INT, 76.4

Edited by tautou
  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Jazz    4952

The Dion Lewis + Gronk cannot be stopped. The Jags are equipped to stop an offense that relies heavily on its exterior WRs, not these guys. Sure the pass rush is world class, but a pass rush matters less when you're throwing shorter passes.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
tautou    4
28 minutes ago, Jazz said:

The Dion Lewis + Gronk cannot be stopped. The Jags are equipped to stop an offense that relies heavily on its exterior WRs, not these guys. Sure the pass rush is world class, but a pass rush matters less when you're throwing shorter passes.


The craziest thing about Lewis is that NE is 27-3 when he's active.

Edited by tautou

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, tautou said:


Outside of the final drive that ended up being garbage time, Roethlisberger dropped 384 yards and 4 touchdowns. San Francisco's offense scored 37 points and Jimmy Garoppolo had an efficient day. No defense, let alone team, is without flaws. For example, Jacksonville is pretty weak against the run and ranked behind New England (though to be fair, Jacksonville allowed 4.3 YPC to NE's 4.7). NE looks to be getting Rex Burkhead back to go along with Dion Lewis and James White. They've also struggled against tight ends. If you struggle against Vance McDonald, have fun against Gronk.

 

The secret behind their defense is that they've played against a LOT of crap offenses. 20 of their 55 sacks (36%) came in week 1 against Houston and week 7 against Indianapolis alone. To put things in perspective, if you were to factor out week 7, Indianapolis would still be in the top ten for sacks allowed for the whole season and would be on pace for nearly 50.

 

 

They just limited Derrick Henry to 28 yards, with his longest run going for four yards, without Alan Branch. Branch coming back will be a huge boost to their run defense. If Dick LeBeau can hold Jacksonville to less <20 points, I'm pretty sure Matt Patricia can do the same.

 

Fournette is overrated. Outside of his games against LAR and Pittsburgh, he only averaged 3.3 YPC and got banged up again against Pittsburgh. Belichick has shown numerous times he can take away the opposing team's top weapon. If that does happen and Jacksonville has to lean on Bortles' arm, they have a problem:

 

When Bortles throws <30 passes: 5-0, 76/117, 1144 yards, 7 TD, INT, 113.3

When Bortles throws >=30 passes: 5-6, 239/406, 2543 yards, 14 TD, 12 INT, 76.4

 

Jimmy G was the exception not the rule. Not like the Jags had a ton to play for. 

 

Idk what you're citing for Jacksonville's Rush D, but I'm guessing it's an aggregate which is worthless since they are completely different rush D post week 12 (marcel dareus acquisition). http://jaguarswire.usatoday.com/2017/11/20/jaguars-rushing-defense-makes-a-drastic-jump-from-week-11-to-week-12/ - Won't bash you on it yet as I'll let you provide the evidence underlying that basis before coming to a conclusion. 

 

I don't think Jacksonville struggles against Tight Ends. Your post on Vance McDonald leads me to believe you fell for the classic correlation =/= causation. Vance McDonald had 112 on 16 targets (catching 10). That's 7 YPA and essentially means he was a check down target. He got 5 more targets than Antonio Brown who was infinitely more efficient (11 targets for 132 catching 7). Jacksonville's corners and pass rush are so good that they funnel and force check down targets. So this argument seems like it doesn't hold much water. 

 

Divisional Oppns consistently play each other better than non-divisional oppns so that explains that one. 

 

Box score scouting =/= qualitative scouting. Yes they play shit offenses, but their corners are playing at a high level (only Antonio Brown has beaten Bouye for a score, Ramsey is Ramsey). Their linebackers are able to keep up with rbs and tight ends and the way they play D, you don't really scheme around it. It's no different than Seattle where they tell you what they are going to do and what they will give up and just bet on their guys being better than your guys. 

 

Fournette isn't overrated and teams clearly dont view him as overrated when Fournette faces more 8 man boxes than any other runner in the league. http://www.espn.com/blog/jacksonville-jaguars/post/_/id/22949/why-success-of-leonard-fournette-led-run-game-is-even-more-impressive (this is about halfway through the season, I'll see if I can find the full one on pff later, but it gives you an idea). Again, this is why box score scouting doesn't give you the whole story. Fournette commands an absurd amount of attention and acts as a literal battering ram. Because he commands this amount of attention, Bortles has much easier throws than he would normally. Now Belichick may opt to make Bortles beat him, but this basically plays into what the Jaguars want anyway, which is to give Bortles easy throws to make. Whether he can or not is beside the point. 

 

Finally, your stats on Bortles gamesplits also suffer a similar issue as they are out of context. I'm going to bet in those 6 losses the Jags were playing from behind which leads to more throws (the same for any QB). 

 

Tom Brady => 35 times  = 8-3

Tom Brady <= 35 times = 5-0

 

Did Brady perform better than Bortles? Yes. 

Did he generally perform worse when he threw the ball more? Yes 

 

This isn't to compare Brady to Bortles but just to illustrate that teams who throw ball do so because they are generally in a losing position that forces them to do so. 

Edited by Francis J Underwood

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Jazz    4952
1 hour ago, Haruki said:

eli-manning-super-bowl-mvp.jpg

 

Giants blow it's been 7 years nobody cares

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, BuildTheWalia said:

Well Well WELL

Jags beat themselves with penalties. As far as I'm concerned, I called that game pretty accurately. I can't account for the corners getting handsey and thats obviously not something Belichick schemed. Teams make mistakes. It happens. 

 

Jags LB won against Gronk (for what he was worth when in) and the rbs (largely ineffective). 

Edited by Francis J Underwood

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×