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Francis J Underwood

The Official 2018-2019 NFL Thread

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Jazz    5065

This off season smells of a changing of the guard more than any season in recent memory. Several main stays of the playoffs in recent years appear to be on the decline (Seahawks, Packers, Patriots).

 

My favorite signing so far has been Crabtree to the Ravens. Congrats franky J.

 

I think KC may be the most interesting team to watch next year because of mahommes, but I hate the Watkins signing. That team with defensive FAs would have been way scarier in 2018.

 

Excited for the draft

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23 hours ago, Jazz said:

This off season smells of a changing of the guard more than any season in recent memory. Several main stays of the playoffs in recent years appear to be on the decline (Seahawks, Packers, Patriots).

 

My favorite signing so far has been Crabtree to the Ravens. Congrats franky J.

 

I think KC may be the most interesting team to watch next year because of mahommes, but I hate the Watkins signing. That team with defensive FAs would have been way scarier in 2018.

 

Excited for the draft

My favorite signing: Ryan Grant's failed physical. 

 

No but in all seriousness you are right. It is a changing of the guard on multiple levels (especially at the GM level). We are looking at a younger, newer crop os aggressive analytics based GMs instead of the older more conservative group. The trades are an apparent sign of teams correcting for how much draft picks were overvalued and understanding the concept of championship windows (3-5 year periods where a team can win the super bowl). The Rams moves are a perfect example of that. 

 

My preliminary thoughts 

 

AFC South - Jacksonville Jaguars - The Norwell signing is a big deal and will make that line respectable if the Jags cotinue to draft well. The team has few, if any weaknesses. Despite the QB holding them back, I don't see any team in the division presently capable of knocking them off. The Titans, while contenders, are not as talented as a whole compared to this team (although Suh may change that if he signs here). 

 

AFC West - Los Angeles Chargers - This is a superbowl team. The Chargers weakness is their run D (which in a division where they will run the ball a lot seems like a huge problem). However, the draft is deep in linebackers and DT and I expect the Chargers will address those needs with little issue. Denver is in a rebuild. Oakland has a lot of holes it needs to fill. The Chiefs are still a contender, but with a defense that needs work and a rookie QB, it will be hard for them to maintain their streak of division wins. Although I like the Watkins signing, Allen Robinson would have fit their needs better. However, KC will be a fun offense to watch

 

AFC North - Pittsburgh Steelers - The Bengals still have no offensive line. Baltimore is still looking for weapons despite what looks to be yet another terrific defense. The Browns are still a year away from competing (assuming their draft hits perfectly). 

 

AFC East - New England 

 

NFC East - This truly depends on how the draft goes. If the Giants get Saquon Barkely, they instantly become the favorite in the division. But Francis what about the Eagles? People need to realize last year's Eagles were an outlier. They will not have the league's best o-line again and Carson Wentz is coming off a major injury (from which he may have to wear a brace for the rest of his career) and is due for regression (highest rate of contested throws (less than 1 yd of separation) last yr at 25%. He got away with a lot more than he should have. 

 

NFC West - Los Angeles Rams - This was close between them and the NIners, but the NIners have too many holes to overcome. While the do have Jimmy G (and the G stands for G.O.A.T.), they are missing pieces on the offensive line, and particularly at corner back (Sherman coming off a torn achilles is a major issue). Their pass rush, despite investment, is also still weak. The Seahawks will find a way to compete just like they always do, but the Rams are more talented (and my god if they get Suh to pair with Donald, look out). The Cardinals are in full rebuild. 

 

NFC North - Minnesota Vikings - I hate picking against Aaron Rodgers because its just asking to get fucked, but Minnesota is far and away the most talented team in the league. While I expect them to regress somewhat offensively, they have so many blue chip players that I do not see how another team can stack up with them. GB has basically been in neutral, The Lions will improve, but the roster still is very talent deficient. The Chicago Bears will also improve, but the same deal - talent deficient roster. 

 

NFC South - Atlanta Falcons - Pre-face: This is before the Suh signing which might change things. This, imo, was the best team in that division last year. I expected to see a much heavier regression than I did. Offensively, they weren't the outlier they were the previous year, but they were still very good. What impressed me though is how talented the roster is becoming defensively. A strong defense with a multi-faceted offense that can challenge you on the ground and through the air, the Falcons will look to claim the division crown. The Saints are a fine team, but their pass rush is going to start to become a factor. A year of tape will also help teams study Sean Peyton's run schemes. Unlike the Falcons, I do not think Michael Thomas is a good enough receive to command and win against the type of coverages that Julio gets. I have really like what the Bucs have done so far, but the roster is still talent deficient. In such a strong division, I don't know if you can overcome that. The team I feel the worst about in this division is Carolina as I see no path towards improvement for them. 

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On 3/22/2018 at 7:50 AM, Francis J Underwood said:

My favorite signing: Ryan Grant's failed physical. 

 

No but in all seriousness you are right. It is a changing of the guard on multiple levels (especially at the GM level). We are looking at a younger, newer crop os aggressive analytics based GMs instead of the older more conservative group. The trades are an apparent sign of teams correcting for how much draft picks were overvalued and understanding the concept of championship windows (3-5 year periods where a team can win the super bowl). The Rams moves are a perfect example of that. 

 

My preliminary thoughts 

 

AFC South - Jacksonville Jaguars - The Norwell signing is a big deal and will make that line respectable if the Jags cotinue to draft well. The team has few, if any weaknesses. Despite the QB holding them back, I don't see any team in the division presently capable of knocking them off. The Titans, while contenders, are not as talented as a whole compared to this team (although Suh may change that if he signs here). 

 

AFC West - Los Angeles Chargers - This is a superbowl team. The Chargers weakness is their run D (which in a division where they will run the ball a lot seems like a huge problem). However, the draft is deep in linebackers and DT and I expect the Chargers will address those needs with little issue. Denver is in a rebuild. Oakland has a lot of holes it needs to fill. The Chiefs are still a contender, but with a defense that needs work and a rookie QB, it will be hard for them to maintain their streak of division wins. Although I like the Watkins signing, Allen Robinson would have fit their needs better. However, KC will be a fun offense to watch

 

AFC North - Pittsburgh Steelers - The Bengals still have no offensive line. Baltimore is still looking for weapons despite what looks to be yet another terrific defense. The Browns are still a year away from competing (assuming their draft hits perfectly). 

 

AFC East - New England 

 

NFC East - This truly depends on how the draft goes. If the Giants get Saquon Barkely, they instantly become the favorite in the division. But Francis what about the Eagles? People need to realize last year's Eagles were an outlier. They will not have the league's best o-line again and Carson Wentz is coming off a major injury (from which he may have to wear a brace for the rest of his career) and is due for regression (highest rate of contested throws (less than 1 yd of separation) last yr at 25%. He got away with a lot more than he should have. 

 

NFC West - Los Angeles Rams - This was close between them and the NIners, but the NIners have too many holes to overcome. While the do have Jimmy G (and the G stands for G.O.A.T.), they are missing pieces on the offensive line, and particularly at corner back (Sherman coming off a torn achilles is a major issue). Their pass rush, despite investment, is also still weak. The Seahawks will find a way to compete just like they always do, but the Rams are more talented (and my god if they get Suh to pair with Donald, look out). The Cardinals are in full rebuild. 

 

NFC North - Minnesota Vikings - I hate picking against Aaron Rodgers because its just asking to get fucked, but Minnesota is far and away the most talented team in the league. While I expect them to regress somewhat offensively, they have so many blue chip players that I do not see how another team can stack up with them. GB has basically been in neutral, The Lions will improve, but the roster still is very talent deficient. The Chicago Bears will also improve, but the same deal - talent deficient roster. 

 

NFC South - Atlanta Falcons - Pre-face: This is before the Suh signing which might change things. This, imo, was the best team in that division last year. I expected to see a much heavier regression than I did. Offensively, they weren't the outlier they were the previous year, but they were still very good. What impressed me though is how talented the roster is becoming defensively. A strong defense with a multi-faceted offense that can challenge you on the ground and through the air, the Falcons will look to claim the division crown. The Saints are a fine team, but their pass rush is going to start to become a factor. A year of tape will also help teams study Sean Peyton's run schemes. Unlike the Falcons, I do not think Michael Thomas is a good enough receive to command and win against the type of coverages that Julio gets. I have really like what the Bucs have done so far, but the roster is still talent deficient. In such a strong division, I don't know if you can overcome that. The team I feel the worst about in this division is Carolina as I see no path towards improvement for them. 

And the Bucs get JPP to add to Vinny Curry and Noah Spence (with Gerald McCoy still being good). Not great but not bad moves either. Certainly makes their pass rush at least respectable. Still need more help, but they can definitely get it in the draft

 

 

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