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Mentioned in the intro thread as having been kinda known in YGO for a long time, then quit for a long time, then started trading professionally for a long time. I'm pretty good as far as short term trades go. Trend following, however, is not my forte. I'm going to post live trades and predictions on here towards markets. I specialize in the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, S&P 500, and volatility products. However, I also trade a few stocks such as TSLA, CMG, etc. Some basic terminology and things to think about:

~Going 'long' means money is made if it goes up.

~Going 'short' means money is made if it goes down.

~Short timeframes means that money is made from small moves. So if a large move has already happened since a post, do not 'chase'-you'll probably buy high, sell low.

~Don't follow trades until you know what you're doing. I might just post an entry and exit whenever, or trade while at work and not have time, etc. And you'll end up stuck with the L.

~I tend to trade weekly options and futures- highly leveraged instruments that can result in a large gain or loss very quickly from even small fluctuations. So if it looks like a small move, know that its been multiplied many times over. For example, a $1 move in SPY translates to around a 10 point move in a single /ES (S&P 500 futures) contract which is $500 move. A 0 DTE (days to expiry) option can move 10% in literally the blink of an eye. Those are crazy. They are called 'lottos'- you're not expected to win consistently on them but holding them through a large move will multiply them over. Usually, the premium (cost of the extrinsic/potential value) exceeds the realized (what it turns out to be) value, and each minute eats away at their value until time is up. So you can buy them when a stock is at 50 and you wait for the price to move in your direction but it does so later on at a dollar up and you can still lose money. If you want to know more about this, search 'options and greeks'.

~My trading strategy is directional and pretty unique, even in the trading world. I'll be posting charts, methodology, and so on. I will not be editing any comments in order to keep what I'd said the way it was in real time.

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Here is an example of the technical analysis of today. Before I begin, let me say that there are several types of trades. The most reliable one is the multi support or multi resistance. In this setup, any 2 or more index hits support (that is, moves down onto a support level to bounce up) or resistance (moves up to a resistance level to reverse to the downside). The exception is VXX which does the opposite, as it is inversely correlated (but this correlation is not 1:1, and that's a good thing). So if VXX hits resistance and DIA hits support at the same time for example, then that is a trade. Ideally, I'd take just a few points and move the stop up as the price goes my way (that is, I lock in my profits as I reach a minimum threshold but I don't close it. Let it run and if it wants to keep going I let it and just move the closing threshold with it if it decides to reverse). Oftentimes, a regular setup will work too where price only hits one of the lines. It depends on a variety of factors such as momentum (how quick price will move in a direction) and many other technical factors. There is more chance of loss on these types of trades than the multi-hit. There are also the intraday break reversal setups. This is when price strongly punches through a line, then goes back to the line to 'springboard' off that line to continue in the direction it punched through. You can see that happen on VXX when it punched through the green line above at 9:05, climbed, and fell back to bounce on the green line to hit the high on 9:55. There are many other technical exit strategies, such as closing when the net line hits. For example, let us say that DIA hit a support line. Generally, all equity indexes move in a highly correlated manner, although it is not 1:1. So when DIA bounces off the support, the next resistance line on the upside is where we would close the trade. However, this next line may be on /ES, QQQ, or VXX (VXX would be a support line to close on, not a resistance line, as it is inversely correlated, remember), and not necessarily on DIA itself. So we would close at that point. Sometimes, lines are so close that it almost counts as the same thing so we could even wait for the price to go further before closing. This is another technical thing to discuss, but to put it simply, 2 lines on an index generally represent a daily trading range, so if it gets to that range, it is not as likely to continue extending the range beyond those two lines that day and thus implies that the low or high of the day is in place. If this range is filled for more than just one index, then that will also improve chances.

Screen Shot 2019-06-11 at 9.27.24 PM.png

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Currently waiting on market cash open in half an hour. If VXX opens above 28.10, that should become the support level for the day. If that hits support while any of the indexes hit resistance at the same point in time, then VXX can be longed or the market shorted. 2877.94 on /ES is where we need to open under for it to become resistance. 260.56 on DIA (Dow Jones) and 182.97 on QQQ (Nasdaq) also applies here. If that scenario doesn't happen, then another scenario will be have to be used. 

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AMD can be bought if it opens above that point and declines to hit the $30 support line, only for the first occurrence. This applies as long as AMD does not gap under the $30 line. No trades should be held overnight, as this method is intraday only.

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So in the morning when I longed VXX for that big green candle, I closed it when DIA went down and almost hit the gray line, as indexes are generally inversely correlated with volatility products. So the DIA support could potentially reverse, implying the short term high of VXX. That's why I closed. However, I thought it would go up more but I had to wait for a setup that would allow me that opportunity, but it never happened. Anyway, at 7:30, /ES hit support. I had fallen back to sleep at the time, as I was exhausted, only to wake up a little later for work. It would have been a good point to buy into though. And again, because indexes are generally correlated, the exit point would have been when DIA hit the resistance line. It didn't catch the high, but gains are gains. There were other trades too, but there was a lot of choppiness in the market today and I didn't want to risk a break, so I avoided re-tests. If price keeps on hitting a support or resistance lever, there are 2 schools of thought. One says that the more times it is tested, the weaker it becomes, as people begin to know about it and the demand gets 'used up'- that is, buyers become expended. The other school says that it shows strength as buyers are willing to defend that level as it is seen as good value. I only trade the first touch for most part. This requires being able to read markets to choose good price levels, and so this way I am able to avoid the conundrum either way. Oh, and for the CMG trade, I would have sustained a little more drawdown for a few minutes had I held as the high ended up being only 1 dollar for my short, but price would have fallen further further later in the day and would have given around a 20% profit. However, individual names are not my specialty and I find index trades easier.

Screen Shot 2019-06-12 at 6.19.34 PM.png

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Forgot to mention, the reason I longed VXX in the first place was because it opened above the resistance line, making it become a support line. QQQ also opened under resistance at the same time. So these factors combined gave a much greater likelihood of the trade working out. That is pretty much the best strategy I have when trading.

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Another nice long trade for a 2 points on /ES on the 8:05 candle when both the Nasdaq and the Dow hit support simultaneously, which was a short term low, but this is after the fact so I can't prove it. However, if you look at the lines in the chart above, you can see where they were in relation to price in order to verify this. /ES offered the resistance point and had I held, it would have given a larger amount of gain. But the market has been consolidating in range and therefore it is more difficult to gauge a potential break.

Screen Shot 2019-06-13 at 5.58.18 PM.png

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@Cardtheorist on mobile heading to work and can't get in to the AdminCP but this evening I'll review ur case. 

 

 

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Something I wanted to point out here as a matter of technical discourse. /ES hit resistance on the 5 min 12:00 candle. However, QQQ had not hit at the time, it was only close. VXX had not hit either. The double hits are very helpful in avoiding the fakeouts the market makes. VXX actually hit support at 12:35 which was time of the actual high on /ES, and the QQQ hit occurred at 12:15. This would have helped in avoiding a false move. I would not count the VXX and QQQ hit as a simultaneous hit, as the timing was off and the market made a small consolidation just above the VXX support which sort of blurs the hit, but it would have been better than the single hit on /ES and one could have gotten a better price on that trade. Spike type events are far superior, as it more clearly defines a move. If the trade had been entered on /ES at 12:00, it would have eventually reversed and the loss would have turned into a win- but there would have been a large drawdown and more likely one would have gotten stopped out (automatic loss cutting when a trade goes too far against you). Notice also the early DIA support hit at 6:30- the next candle had only a small drawdown and could have been a good long entry. But, one can't have a system that says these things in hindsight because anyone can do that. 

 

In my second image, I show the 2 day chart on QQQ (today and yesterday) on the 5 minute timeframe. This shows how lines are generated. Often, a price floor (where lows occur) will become a price ceiling (where highs occur) if price happens to gap up or below that point. This will help anticipate where reversals occur. (If you want to learn more about these things, I recommend the 'supply and demand' trading style, you can google it. Don't pay for any courses or books, you don't need someone to pay or else they would have been successful trading themselves. And for books, there are a lot of free ones as well as torrents.) So when you mark out these important points, you should do it for the 3 main indexes that are trades on the US stock exchanges, as they are correlated. The price ceiling/floor method is good but it does not work all the time. However, by correlating the major indexes and trading the double hits, it improves the chances that you've found the 'real' reversal point.

 

I've talked to a bunch of traders but the intensity and drive of the gamers here was so much more. I think the people here would turn out to be better traders than people from most other professions, but that's just imo. I don't think it can happen anymore, as it seems almost everyone left. It's kind of sad.

Screen Shot 2019-06-14 at 8.41.26 PM.png

Screen Shot 2019-06-14 at 8.52.48 PM.png

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Here I show the daily chart of John Deere Co. See near the left, those 2 candles hitting their wicks on the long red line. This shows that for two days, the low was at that point. Afterwards, it gapped down and crashed. Much later, it climbed back up. Look at the green candle (4th from right). This was the first time price went back to that point. With the settings to display price in this manner, a green candle with a body filled (unlike a transparent green candle) means that price gapped up then moved down to end the day still above the previous close but had a net intraday decline. This is what I meant when I said that a price ceiling pushed the price down when it first touches there. Think about the market psychology. People who bought on the lows of the price floor (as it was a price floor at that time) were at a net loss when price gapped down. They could only close for breakeven IF price got back to that level. So if price ever got back, you can see there would be some selling at that point to push price down. And thats exactly what happened. I've attached the intraday price chart on the 5 min scale (where each candle represents 5 min of trading) to display the dynamics of that day. 

Screen Shot 2019-06-15 at 10.05.28 AM.png

Screen Shot 2019-06-15 at 10.15.22 AM.png

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On 6/14/2019 at 5:36 PM, StandardBasicCardTheorist said:

No good setups today, traded nothing.

 

This place is deader than my insides. What happened? 

Presumably the same thing that's happening to Pojo. Not to mention Yu-Gi-Oh ETC/Exodia.gg and Yu-Gi-Oh Forums are actually just gone no longer hosted. A lot of people say Facebook wounded the Yu-Gi-Oh forum pretty bad and Discord killed it. 

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Nate1080    1233

Also, specific to DGz now that I think about it, Warring and Mafia not being things any more really destroyed activity.

 

 

Basically, almost ironically actually, when Allen wasn’t able to be an admin anymore.

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Dang. Quite disappointing tbh. But that's how life goes, ups and downs. That old Worm Linx Snipe Hunter deck wasn't really any good. I just happened to get lucky using it in a grindy metagame where it fared better than normal (still wasn't good, I'll be the first to admit- to rogue stuff mainly it lost), but it was a little after Qli and the pendulum mechanic came out that it really became obsolete. I had some big wins over a few legends in the game but only online so it means nothing and it was never good enough to win major tournaments.

 

I can look at my stock strategies and see how technically, it is similar to the deck building methods I use. Helmet.dek pretty much. The analysis is done beforehand (line drawing) and there is really no decision tree involved. Hard to translate it further to YGO, but yeah. Neither is an easy game. Just a few days ago I know a guy who blew his whole account. Scary stuff. He'd been trading for years too. Just gotta keep reading, learning, applying, readjusting. I just thought it'd be cool to see what kind of strategies the players here could come up with in trading. Other forums are just kinda meh. I don't want to sound like a showoff but I've been doing well and others online consider me to be one of the good ones, so it isn't easy finding someone to discuss technical methods with. People just don't understand. Also, like in YGO, if a strategy gets out, everyone else uses it and then it stops working. My edge/secret in the game is how I calculate the price points- googled it and nothing came up so I have to develop it further by myself from scratch pretty much. It's all good though. It's part of the game.

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+rei+    34727

when i last looked into day trading more than a decade ago transaction fees for individuals killed it if you couldn't literally be on the floor

 

I assume that's changed?

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30 minutes ago, rei said:

when i last looked into day trading more than a decade ago transaction fees for individuals killed it if you couldn't literally be on the floor

 

I assume that's changed?

Yes. There are so many discount brokers out there now. Robinhood is free- they sell your info and execution is terrible, can end up losing money from just that. On the other hand, ThinkOrSwim and Tastyworks is excellent- Tasty offers just a $1 commission per option contract per leg for a max of $10. Over 10 and the rest are free. $1.25 to open and $1.25 to close a futures contract too. ToS is not as cheap but offers way more in terms of charts, studies, etc. Some use a combination of both- having some holds in ToS to fill the minimum requirement in order to use their services then trade in a different brokerage. 

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Looking at premarket prices, VXX will likely open under its previous price floor, becoming a ceiling. Therefore, it should decline. 26.68 appears to be the next support level and it can reach that this week.

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Hmm. From other trading forums, everyone have been saying this strategy is trash because it is doing technical analysis on a product, vol, that has no basis in doing so. Getting bashed pretty hard lol. No one believes.

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