Jump to content

Recommended Posts

+rei+    34687

my gut instinct is it doesnt scale well for a diversified portfolio, but product knowledge in specific niches seems like an obvious and smart way to make a buck. I wouldn't want to sell this product to people for their RRSPs but for doing it yourself i dont see the big deal outside of a fairly high risk% 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, rei said:

my gut instinct is it doesnt scale well for a diversified portfolio, but product knowledge in specific niches seems like an obvious and smart way to make a buck. I wouldn't want to sell this product to people for their RRSPs but for doing it yourself i dont see the big deal outside of a fairly high risk% 

You are right. It's stupid, but I got into a dumb argument with a guy on the internet who is legit rich with a mansion and all (he had proof) and we were arguing about methods on VXX. I said I'd go all in with my life savings if the setup presented itself just to prove a point and I posted the numbers for them to happen. It did just this morning as shown in the picture, VXX hit resistance at the same time DIA hit support. He then argued that I should have had went long vol and not long the indexes as per the methodology, and I said that wasn't the case due to the gap determining if something was support or resistance, and how could I have went long vol when there was no double hit? It was dumb, but whatever. I think I'll just leave from there. There are a lot of smart people there who know how to trade but none of them do it the way I do and so they just don't get it.

Screen Shot 2019-06-18 at 6.55.07 AM.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
+rei+    34687

People don't like people outside their definitions of 'what works' - threatens the ego

 

Hell it took me two or three posts to really keep up with what you're sellin just because my gut reaction to almost any 'this is a way to make money' commentary is intense scepticism. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jim Simons, creator of arguably the greatest hedge fund in the world, shuns the Wall Street types for their dogmatic thinking and hires PhDs, code breakers, and so on who have no financial experience, in order to improve his fund. Generally, out of the box stuff fails, but the best strategies are out of the box types in all competitive fields. Not that I'm saying mine is the best- but everyone has something they're good and bad at so just go with what works I guess. 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
+rei+    34687
20 minutes ago, StandardBasicCardTheorist said:

Jim Simons, creator of arguably the greatest hedge fund in the world, shuns the Wall Street types for their dogmatic thinking and hires PhDs, code breakers, and so on who have no financial experience, in order to improve his fund. Generally, out of the box stuff fails, but the best strategies are out of the box types in all competitive fields. Not that I'm saying mine is the best- but everyone has something they're good and bad at so just go with what works I guess. 

and dont forget most wall street types are trying to sell their services to others, being discredited is not very good for that business model 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You're right. If they could trade, they would have used their strategies to make money themselves rather than sell it, as a profitable system is extremely valuable. This is why most are snake oil sellers. It's been that way ever since cavemen were trading their things with other cavemen tribes. Today is no different. This is why I learn to trade based off of old trading books and ancient strategies. I really don't believe that the computers of today somehow have changed that aspect. Human nature remains the same and is reflected in the charts. It is simply a graph of the psychology of the masses.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Also wondering if I should keep posting if there's even a point and if so, what? Forecasts? Methodology? Live trades? The market is nearing all time highs too so if it gets there, there won't be so many lines to play with so I'll have to rely on individual stocks which I am not as good on, unlike the simultaneous hit strategy... trend trading is better but I kind of suck at just buying and holding. Its easy but being this high makes me secondguess...I'd love the market to crash though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FOMC today. So the market will likely stay in tight range until the interest rate announcement. Then the market should make huge candles. The question is, in what direction? It is possible to take both the long and short side via a strangle (an options strategy that hopes the market moves big either up or down. If the market moves enough in a direction, the value of the option will become over 100% while the other loses almost all its value, thus turning a profit. The Realized Move needs to be greater than the Expected Move- that is, Implied Volatility vs Realized Volatility). It often happens that the initial move should be faded- so if the market moves up, they should short it, and vice versa. This does not always happen, and generally one needs to be quick to get in and out in the event of reversals. It will probably be a tricky day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
+rei+    34687

i'm enjoying reading it but i dont have much to say 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, rei said:

i'm enjoying reading it but i dont have much to say 

I see, it'd be cool if we all got rich and got a bunch of supercars and raced down the streets of Vegas throwing money to homeless people.

 

Also, DIA 265.93 on the dot. Upped life savings by over 2% on that one.

Screen Shot 2019-06-19 at 7.08.08 AM.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Man, exits are tough to pick. If I held for another 5 min, could have had 5-6% up on the account. But a big green candle came in and would have wiped some of that profit. The thing is that with options, because of the theta, if the price of the stock itself returns to the point of entry, the value of the option erodes and one will be at a loss- even if it goes in your direction. But they can gain- and lose- value really quickly. Its a commonly held belief that trading options, particularly short term 'weeklys' is a losing game and just gambling. Futures generally provide a better risk:reward ratio, apparently, as they function linearly. I will probably switch over to using them. Even if the absolute gain amounts are lower, the r:r profile is improved. I pretty much dump my whole paycheck in my account each month and all my money is sitting in the account with almost nothing in the bank. Its a scary game...I usually put in at least 20% of life savings per trade in the riskiest weeklys. High risk high reward. Just gotta keep grinding it up.

 

Its funny, but I used to be obsessed with YGO. Now that its come to trading, its the exact same thing, spending hours every day on the markets. It's not so much about the money (its a great thing to have, no doubt) but about passion for the game. Its just really fun. I like posting here I guess because its a bit like a journal and trading reminds me of ygo and the old days. Documenting brief moments of the thought process over time. I have a bunch of old trading notebooks (I started trading 3 years ago) and I believed in a lot of stuff about trading I'd read from books and online that never worked and lost a lot of money. I went through those in case I had forgotten a good technique but its just notebook after notebook of trash.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
+rei+    34687

im too tall for supercars : ( im super into cars in general tho ill find something fun

hell i already drive something fun it just looks like an economy car ;p

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sounds like a Subaru WRX. I'm rally into cars too, there are several modified ones at the auto shop where I work. Done some crazy driving...I think you have as well lol.

 

Did well today. Today was FOMC and when they were talking about what they'd do with interest rates, the algorithms went crazy as they always do. I used the lines to predict where the buys and sells would be and it worked out amazingly. On the 11AM candle, the price dropped and hit 2 support lines, one on /ES and one on QQQ at the same time. That would have been my entry if I was quick enough. Blinked and the price shot up like crazy. It went high to the point where both DIA and QQQ hit at the same time on highs of the day. I managed to catch that one but closed it quick- values were fluctuating more than Trump's tweets on a good (bad?) day. Up 4% on the day. Could have been more but could have lost money too- a lot of people got killed out there. Trading against the multimillion dollar hedge fund and institution computers is tough. And again, yesterday's chart can be used to verify that these price points were generated well in advance, not after the fact. I hope I can make enough to quit my job soon and become a full time trader.

Screen Shot 2019-06-19 at 2.39.37 PM.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
+rei+    34687

I got rejected for a WRX because Toyota Finance fucked me like a bitch 
(Subaru in Canada does their financing through Toyota Finance. My dad, who owns a Lexus and has my same first and last name, came up as owing them 60 grand and they wouldn't listen to reason or logic or "we have different middle names" so I fucked off)

 

I have a Focus ST now. I wish it was AWD but I like it. GOod deal cars that can 'do anything' are few and far between that I can actually fit in (I'm 6'5 but im like all torso) 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
+rei+    34687
32 minutes ago, StandardBasicCardTheorist said:

Market hitting all time highs. There are therefore no price levels to work with so I'll have to change my strategy to a worse one. Not sure where to go from here yet.

sometimes winning move is not to play right? like if the data is bad and there's not a known good play savin the cash for tomorrow is prob the right move right? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, rei said:

sometimes winning move is not to play right? like if the data is bad and there's not a known good play savin the cash for tomorrow is prob the right move right? 

Yep but even my suboptimal strategy is still profitable, so it is possible. I will have to trade smaller though. But yeah sometimes there aren't any good setups and I don't make any trades for the day.

 

DIA 265.93

QQQ 187.53

/ES 2940.40

VXX 26.28 or 26.68

If any 2+ hit at the same time intraday as support (resistance for VXX), I'll dump all of my money in longs

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
+rei+    34687
18 hours ago, StandardBasicCardTheorist said:

Sounds like a Subaru WRX. I'm rally into cars too, there are several modified ones at the auto shop where I work. Done som

shit man make a thread about that ive been trying to make dg cars be a thing for like nine years and its literally never worked rofl 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lol hardly anyone would read it, nobody home anymore... I took my dad's old mercedes and tried drifting in the rain and almost crashed...also lost control of it on an exit in the rain another time and some random truck dude pushed me with his truck when I got stuck in the mud...some police shenanigans too...

 

And as predicted, the market bounced at those points mentioned, right on the lows. I've never seen all 4 hit simultaneously- amazing! And as stated, I would put all my money in that trade, and I did- made off with a king's ransom today. Not going to lie though, it was scary and I was literally shaking- those were the riskiest options I could buy. Notice also too the high gray total volume bars in the background- this shows that supply (sellers) is being consumed by buys. Think of it like this: selling causes price to go lower, and buying bids price higher. So demand must exceed supply to reverse price up. So if the ratio of volume to price change is higher, it implies that there is now more buying mixed in than before. Eg price moves down .2% on a volume of 10, but the next bar goes down .2% on a volume of 15. More effort was needed to drive price down the same amount. It is basically buyers and sellers cancelling each other out. On lows, it shows that buyers are willing to accept this price and find value at that price point, and therefore suck up the supply. If it happens on a line on High of Day (HoD) or Low of Day (LoD), it gives extra credence to a reversal thesis. 

Screen Shot 2019-06-20 at 2.39.40 PM.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Switching over to a different account due to restrictions on the current one (nothing I did, just due to account type) which may take a week or so. Hoping volatility continues- don't really care which direction price goes as long as it makes big and quick moves.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Shorted natural gas on its HoD (High of Day). I went all-in on that one and turned an enormous 4 figure profit. Its nicknamed the widowmaker due to its extreme volatility and unpredictability, and can be quite dangerous. See here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-19/hedge-fund-s-accounts-liquidated-amid-energy-market-volatility  My strategy works on it but the setups it provides are only occasional. Best to just set alerts and ignore it until it comes to the price I had marked out, then trade. Actually, this is the case for most things. The setup I saw on this one was that it hit one of the long term lines I had marked out a long time ago which was also the 4/25 LoD low of the day where it bounced; it was the low for the change in trend. When prices align in that manner, it confirmed I had found a market sweet spot. Opened the short 'in front of a steamroller' as they say. I closed it too quickly- had I held, it would have been more than double the profit, and was the same technical point I had thought to close as the minimum target. However, it was just too terrifying to hold. Each tick increment was a huge amount. Couldn't handle it. Sometimes you raise, sometimes you fold.

 

I also traded the Nasdaq/QQQ for a bit. rei, it is just as you said, you gotta play only when the advantage is there and walk away when not. See the first candle on the Dow and QQQ at 6:30? That was my standard 'best' strategy, and it worked again. The exit was also the first line on the downside where the price bounced. Doesn't always bounce there, but that doesn't really matter, as it is a point for exit and take profits, not one of entering (unless there is a setup). It isn't as simple as blindly buying or selling on a line.

Screen Shot 2019-07-05 at 6.31.11 PM.png

Screen Shot 2019-07-05 at 6.43.40 PM.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×