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Been reviewing the charts over the weekend. Palladium had a huge drop on Friday but it seems like it still has further to fall before it is safe to buy. $1785 is where it should be bought as long as it doesn't gap beneath $1780. It should move down to hit $1785 intraday. A 1 cent change in the price of palladium is equal to a $1 change in the value. I also set an alert for Bitcoin (ticker /BTC) to go down to $6100 in order to buy it. Bitcoin futures also are leveraged where a $1 change in the value of a Bitcoin corresponds to a $5 change in the contract. I've never actually traded either one of these, but back and forward testing shows that both of these trades have a good chance of working out.

 

Futures are leveraged products. In addition to that, different brokers will allow one to trade more or less contracts depending on the margins they provide. Margin is basically collateral. So let's say you have $10,000 in the account and the broker allows a day-trade margin of $1,000 on gold. That means, theoretically, you can trade up to 10 contracts at a time. However, in reality, if your account goes below that $1,000 per contract held, they can close your position automatically. Trading 10 contracts would mean your account cannot suffer any drawdown (adverse move) so unless you can time the exact high or low, it isn't realistic. Gold is leveraged where a $0.01 change in the price of gold means a $1 change in account value. So you can see that even trading 5 contracts of gold with a $10,000 account means that a $1 move in gold will fluctuate one's account value by 5%. Gold typically moves a few dollars a day. Keep in mind that the general stock market moves up around 10% on average per year over the long run. This kinda gives you an idea of the risk/reward stuff involved in trading.

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Sigh. I missed the low...by just thirty cents/$30 per contract. If the order had went through to the buy point, I could have been sitting on over $3,000 on each one. I know it's part of the game, but it's just really frustrating when that happens.

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Closed for breakeven, it didn't work. Possibly due to the daily open being under, but who knows. Made a few other trades. Missed out on a jackpot by closing too early because it didn't spike the way I wanted, and meant to close a trade but accidentally doubled the position. Turned a good trade into barely profitable. Also lost a bit on another. Up a little bit today

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Had a rare +30% day today, and then blew it on trading natural gas. Up only 2% on the day today. I cannot consistently read natural gas- its known as the 'widowmaker' in trading circles due to its unpredictability and wild moves. Removed it from my watchlist. 

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Did some testing over the weekend. Found a similarly derived, yet new strategy. It is perhaps preliminary, but it seems to be more profitable by a factor of several times the old one. Not only that, but it appears that risk itself has been reduced. Still need to test it more, but I don't see any reason it shouldn't keep working. This is extremely exciting.

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Aaron    2057

can someone explain to me how this thread is free money? 

 

 

im trying to get into trading.. what resources should i start with and apps should i use? 

I'd say I have about 2 hours a day to learn it, and I can bank roll a decent ammount. would like to start small.. maybe 5k, then obviously if im going ok, and getting the hang of things, expand from there. 

 

 

tldr i have a chunk of money in the bank with no viable investment oppurtunities which im used to so want some advice please.

 

ideally im looking to try and mature the cash i have as I want to build/open my own well being centre/practice and I think i'll need more money than i have now to buy in. 

Edited by Aaron

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On 2/12/2020 at 8:27 AM, Aaron said:

can someone explain to me how this thread is free money? 

 

 

im trying to get into trading.. what resources should i start with and apps should i use? 

I'd say I have about 2 hours a day to learn it, and I can bank roll a decent ammount. would like to start small.. maybe 5k, then obviously if im going ok, and getting the hang of things, expand from there. 

 

 

tldr i have a chunk of money in the bank with no viable investment oppurtunities which im used to so want some advice please.

 

ideally im looking to try and mature the cash i have as I want to build/open my own well being centre/practice and I think i'll need more money than i have now to buy in. 

Well, I posted my predictions and if they had been followed (assuming you don't go all in each time, eg being reasonable) it would have turned a profit. 

 

There are many trading styles. I recommend reading about Supply and Demand trading, that is what I use. Some use Market Profile which does well for them apparently; I never got into it. DO NOT start using real money. Use a paper trading account, or write down the trades you would have made (do so in real time- hindsight bias will certainly make you think you're better than you are and this will lead to real losses), rationale, etc. That is, have a trading journal.

 

Investment=/=trading. If you want to buy and hold forever, that's a different story. Time horizon, goals etc. all vary.

 

Mature the cash generally has people buying into a variety of things and holding, eg a diversification.

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Aaron    2057
On 14/02/2020 at 2:36 AM, StandardBasicCardTheorist said:

Well, I posted my predictions and if they had been followed (assuming you don't go all in each time, eg being reasonable) it would have turned a profit. 

 

There are many trading styles. I recommend reading about Supply and Demand trading, that is what I use. Some use Market Profile which does well for them apparently; I never got into it. DO NOT start using real money. Use a paper trading account, or write down the trades you would have made (do so in real time- hindsight bias will certainly make you think you're better than you are and this will lead to real losses), rationale, etc. That is, have a trading journal.

 

Investment=/=trading. If you want to buy and hold forever, that's a different story. Time horizon, goals etc. all vary.

 

Mature the cash generally has people buying into a variety of things and holding, eg a diversification.

 

 

Cheers mate.

 

I researched a little bit and I decided I'm going to put £20k into a vanguard ISA global all cap. 

I'm currently playing around with £1k buying and selling a few stocks. I think I might open up another ISA after April and see if I can trade and invest my own stocks, trying to time a few stock purchases to beat my Vanguard fund. 

 

If my sister can help support my mortgage application, I'll likely buy a super-house by this summer and then rent it out to 2 people whilst my sister and myself live there, buy another super-house and then hopefully buy a super-super-house as a potential end game property.

 

If she doesn't, because she wants to buy a shit flat buy herself which is going to be useless in 10 years and basically just break even cos she's wants "independence", then idk wtf to do lol as my temporary wage cut has locked me out of mortgage options which match my bank account. 

 

Daytrading wise, I feel like I have loads to learn as I still don't quite get it (which I think is what you're doing right?).  I wish I could get into it with a bit of knowledge but at present, its basically just gambling at my currently level of know-how. 

Edited by Aaron

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Usually the case is you want to follow the trend, eg buy what goes up and cut what doesn't. The US share market, in the long term, has outrun inflation and other asset classes. Of course there are corrections but it always has gone back to new all time highs within a few of years. I believe Ray Dalio, manager of the largest hedge fund in the world, called it a one-way bet; if it goes up, great! If it goes down and doesn't go back up, it means something is fundamentally wrong with the US economy and at that stage, we'll have riots and things where money won't really matter anymore. So needless to say, he is heavy in US equities for a long time.

 

Mortgage is a form of leverage- it works well when in your favor but when things turn south, it tends to hurt twice as much. I don't know that much about real estate, but if the appreciation and rent exceeds the costs, it works, but if property values and demand for luxury goes down, then it hurts.

 

Yeah, I'm buying and selling in the same day. More and more though, I think holding for longer periods of time is better. A lot of the time, flipping in and out leads to missing a major move. That's not to say its like being Warren Buffett- there are many opportunities to get in and out- but the trend is still up. Holding for a few days to close is usually regarded as 'swing trading'. 'Position trading' is to hold for a few months or years. Jesse Livermore, one of the greatest if not greatest trader ever, often bought stocks at all time highs. This was because he expected the trend to continue. He could day-trade too, but he said the big money was in the big move- and the big moves are usually in the direction the market is already moving. 

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