Jump to content
Jazz

Forged in Chaos Mafia - Day 9

Recommended Posts

Brandis72    40

Back for a bit because otherwise I'll literally get modkilled since there aren't any subs and I just totally lack the brainpower to play this game.

I've skimmed through what happened so far, and see that diana is the current lynch target (and if scum, also compromises rei and possibly others?).

I know this is timewasting for all of you, but could you please resume the exact arguments against her? I'll happily vote her once I can actually figure out what's going on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Brandis72    40

BuildTheWalia replied to Jazz's topic in Mafia

Unvote Vote diana wild game.....zzz
 
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
 
Walia is floating hardcore and, while there, does absolutely nothing of substance and just goes with the flow.
The fact that he just casually voted for diana would be strange if he was scum, and I have yet to see any reason why he isn't.
Can anyone present arguments on this?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
+rei+    34991

the caseo n diana is 'i know them' + roleblock right? or am I missing something 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
hazmah    139
4 minutes ago, my bloody arcanine said:

You haven't factored the fact that this is Tyranno, and that rei was trying to get him killed. I'm not gonna argue with your what's the optimal play, but it feels like you're forcing your agenda instead of seeing the simple picture.

So you take a shot in the dark randomly, and luckily hit a PR? By itself, hitting a PR in that circumstance is a 50/50, on top of it conveniently being the watcher who's watching the doc. Are you really suggesting that's more likely than just RBing the only confirmed PR in the game, and it being one of the best roles on top of that too? Like, besides the fact that doc is very potent, if you're going to attempt to kill rei, despite the horrible day 1 he had, that means you guaranteed want him dead no matter what. If you are so obstinate and dead-set on killing rei, are you telling me you won't try to roleblock the doctor, who even if you don't think will heal him, is a large obstacle in your path over a random dice roll? Surely, if you're that tunneled into committing the action, you remove all the obstacles possible. Saying otherwise is a reach and a half my guy. Come on, regardless of whether you're scum or town here, you can do better than this.

 

Let's use rei's link for example, which is very reductionist and shouldn't really be taken into consideration by itself, but for the sake of irony, let's talk about Occam's Razor, and how you should take the explanation with the least amount of assumptions.

 

This is the assumption MBA is trying to put up:

1) Your circumstance assumes that Scum must have tried to hit rei who is one of the most prolific players in the game when there's a doc on the board, and also choose to avoid roleblocking that doc.

2) Your circumstance assumes that Scum tried to hit rei despite him having one of the worst day 1s on this site.

2) Your circumstance assumes that Scum did not roleblock the only confirmed and one of the most powerful roles in the game.

3) Your circumstance assumes that Scum thought they would get the, at most, around 50% likelyhood of hitting town PR there besides doc. 

4) Your circumstance assumes that Scum must have conveniently hit the watcher who was also watching the doc, which is a 1/13 chance.

 

Let's compare that to my own interpretation:
1) Scum roleblocked the only confirmed PR role in the game, which is Tyranno as doc. 

 

 

You see the difference? My interpretation requires one thing to be true, and something which makes a lot of sense. Yours requires probabilities as low as 1/13, and assumes a lot of things, for example that Scum is going to take a shot in the dark, which is bad play when you have one of the strongest roles right in front of your face. As a result, you look like you are the one trying to push an agenda. And let me just say, it's not a very good look to have =).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
+rei+    34991

Your assumption requires scum to have a roleblock. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Brandis72    40

So under your current hypothesis, haz, what does the scum team look like?

 

Diana/rei, who else?

 

Just need to get myself a bit of info to work with since I'm way too tired to process day 2 as it happened.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
+rei+    34991

still not totally sure how i end up scum because of diana but i'm sure hazmah will explain it without missing any minor inconsistancies ; ) 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
hazmah    139
Just now, rei said:

Your assumption requires scum to have a roleblock. 

And he never explicitly said otherwise, and even went out of his way to say that he thought BB was the one who got roleblocked. That is his assumption, and as a result both of our things require that, so for the sake of simplicity and clarity, it was added to neither. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
hazmah    139
7 minutes ago, rei said:

the caseo n diana is 'i know them' + roleblock right? or am I missing something 

@Brandis72 This is an unfair and very skewered projection of my thoughts on the Diana circumstance, because rei's survival depends on Diana not flipping. As a result I would not trust it.

 

Essentially, the crux of the matter is that there are 2 circumstances that are very likely to be the explanation of what happened last night with no NK besides Jeri, who we all infer was vigged. Either tyranno got the successful heal off on rei, or I successfully blocked Diana from executing a mafia kill. 

 

The case is that, the former is extremely unlikely considering all things, as mafia has a roleblocker, and if they could roleblock any of the players, why would they not roleblock one of the most powerful roles in doctor, who is also the only confirmed role they know that's in the game. Instead, they somehow got the 1/13 chance to hit the exact person who's viewing doc. That by itself already makes my possibility more likely. In addition, rei has been playing very scummy, so it makes sense that Tyranno didn't heal rei otherwise he would have died because of rei. This detracts from the Tyranno heal credibility.

 

In addition, Diana has been playing very scummy, barely making any effort to play the game. Thus, that adds credibility to the roleblock possibility. 

 

This is a very brief summary of what has happened though, so as I say every game, I would suggest reading the thread yourself and making your own reads.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, hazmah said:

And he never explicitly said otherwise, and even went out of his way to say that he thought BB was the one who got roleblocked. That is his assumption, and as a result both of our things require that, so for the sake of simplicity and clarity, it was added to neither. 

it's my assumption because that is what BB said in the thread.. you're making no sense.

 

i still need to read your huge post

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
hazmah    139
Just now, my bloody arcanine said:

it's my assumption because that is what BB said in the thread.. you're making no sense.

 

i still need to read your huge post

And BB even went out of his way to say that either he or Tyranno got roleblocked, becuase it didn't state that BB got roleblocked. Instead, it stated that BB got no result, which means either BB was roleblocked or Tyranno stayed home (as a result of a roleblock). You are assuming the former that BB got roleblocked, I am assuming the latter. Where is the lack of logic here? Explain what doesn't make sense. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Brandis72    40

Ok haz, makes sense.

 

Now what the heck does the opposition have to say for it!?

I just see fluff, not concrete arguments.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
+rei+    34991

Hazmah you forcing a false link between me and Diana is very poor play if you're town. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
+rei+    34991

unvote

vote dyachei

 

i'll put my simplicity money where my mouth is. 

Jericho was the NK and Frankie was trying to metagame. 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Brandis72    40

vote Diana

 

Hitting what appears to be mechanically proven scum looks like a good idea.

...But I still want people to talk about Walia and I find his acceptance of the Diana lynch pretty dubious.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Brandis72    40

@rei if you aren't at risk of getting lynched if Diana gets lynched, then why in the world wouldn't you vote for Diana.

Actual arguments please...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
+rei+    34991
1 minute ago, Brandis72 said:

@rei if you aren't at risk of getting lynched if Diana gets lynched, then why in the world wouldn't you vote for Diana.

Actual arguments please...

the entire case against diana is Hazmah saying they know how they act and roleblocked them and thus prevented the NK.

 

I don't think that's a super compelling amount of evidence at all. Hazmah already posted my view was reductionist - I'm more than willing to hear more about this. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
hazmah    139
5 minutes ago, rei said:

Hazmah you forcing a false link between me and Diana is very poor play if you're town. 

Your entire gameplay throughout the game has been very piss poor play, regardless of whether you are town or scum. I'm near completely certain you are scum here, however if you do flip town here, I will take some blame for the mislynch, but you have been the most detrimental player this entire game, and you are the most significant reason why you got yourself lynched. I am honestly disappointed with this level of play, irrespective of which faction you are.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
+rei+    34991

I am sorry I do not buy into false dichotomies. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
+rei+    34991

please explain the Diana rei link. 


Or was I only supposed to pressure people who aren't you or aren't talking about me? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, hazmah said:

So you take a shot in the dark randomly, and luckily hit a PR? By itself, hitting a PR in that circumstance is a 50/50, on top of it conveniently being the watcher who's watching the doc. Are you really suggesting that's more likely than just RBing the only confirmed PR in the game, and it being one of the best roles on top of that too? Like, besides the fact that doc is very potent, if you're going to attempt to kill rei, despite the horrible day 1 he had, that means you guaranteed want him dead no matter what. If you are so obstinate and dead-set on killing rei, are you telling me you won't try to roleblock the doctor, who even if you don't think will heal him, is a large obstacle in your path over a random dice roll? Surely, if you're that tunneled into committing the action, you remove all the obstacles possible. Saying otherwise is a reach and a half my guy. Come on, regardless of whether you're scum or town here, you can do better than this.

 

Let's use rei's link for example, which is very reductionist and shouldn't really be taken into consideration by itself, but for the sake of irony, let's talk about Occam's Razor, and how you should take the explanation with the least amount of assumptions.

 

This is the assumption MBA is trying to put up:

1) Your circumstance assumes that Scum must have tried to hit rei who is one of the most prolific players in the game when there's a doc on the board, and also choose to avoid roleblocking that doc.

2) Your circumstance assumes that Scum tried to hit rei despite him having one of the worst day 1s on this site.

2) Your circumstance assumes that Scum did not roleblock the only confirmed and one of the most powerful roles in the game.

3) Your circumstance assumes that Scum thought they would get the, at most, around 50% likelyhood of hitting town PR there besides doc. 

4) Your circumstance assumes that Scum must have conveniently hit the watcher who was also watching the doc, which is a 1/13 chance.

 

Let's compare that to my own interpretation:
1) Scum roleblocked the only confirmed PR role in the game, which is Tyranno as doc. 

 

 

You see the difference? My interpretation requires one thing to be true, and something which makes a lot of sense. Yours requires probabilities as low as 1/13, and assumes a lot of things, for example that Scum is going to take a shot in the dark, which is bad play when you have one of the strongest roles right in front of your face. As a result, you look like you are the one trying to push an agenda. And let me just say, it's not a very good look to have =).

1) Correct. rei wasn't right day 1 -> rei is open for a kill because people might think he's scum /other more valuable (townie) players to protect. No point roleblocking the claimed doc, who was gonna get lynched by rei himself.

2) Correct. town rei is dangerous, and town rei can have bad day 1. If you were around back in the days, he used to get it right by day 2.
2) (you put 2 twice!) Correct. Doc is an overrated role and as long as a scanner is alive, and Doc was claimed, they could look into other players for power roles.

3) I don't understand this point at all. It's just another repeat of a previous point where I don't believe scum would try to roleblock Tyranno. (again, that's dumb)

4) Partly correct. I assume BB was roleblocked because he said so. I don't know if that's a scum or some town power.

I really don't understand how that compares to your own interpretation. You were talking about Diana being the one who did the NK, so I don't understand your point at all.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
+rei+    34991

they claimed RBing Diana. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, rei said:

they claimed RBing Diana. 

I know that, and my entire point is that he buying into that this is the reason for the no kill rather than an actual heal which he doesn't believe happened. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×