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who started this calling 3/4 on sixth shit

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So pretty much what he's saying is if you're already gonna win, you don't even need to play the card

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The reason people think that calling 3-4 is good all the time is because they are weighing drawing and milling the same, which is just wrong. I used to agree on calling 3-4 at certain times, but you realize that drawing is at least 2-3x as valuable as milling so placing it at 33.33% vs 66.66% is just completely wrong. For example, compare pot of greed to needlebug nest. The former draws 2 cards giving you a +1 and is banned/staple in every deck while the latter mills 5 which is 2.5x the amount of cards that pot of greed sees, yet the card sucks dick. Given, this may not be the best example, it was just the only one I had been given to me by Spanier.

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»Relianah    4515


why the fuck do people care? call whatever you want to call. in the end no matter what you call and it goes through, you're probably going to win anyway.

that's like the worst logic ever. You basically just said "who cares if I misplayed I still won"
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Miss Click    2475

Yeah there's bound to be hands where it's actually the right call mathematically, if you were perfect in judging it.  

 

Say you need fuel for only a single additional dragon summon to push for game, you don't need the positive EV that calling 56 gets you as much as you need to reduce the variance of the die roll.  Pretty sure this also applies if you are +5 on your opponent as well?  There are times when reducing variance is way more important than maximising the expected return you get off a roll.

 

there's also probably infinite scenarios where you need to make say cards of consonance or seven swords that are dead in hand live, so it's much more beneficial reducing the variance because if you mill enough dragons on a roll of 5 or 6 you can banish, add corseca or flamvell to hand, and just go off.

 

Obv calling 3-4 is wrong a lot of the time, that doesn't mean it isn't ok SOME of the time.  

 

How the fuck do you reduce the variance of a die roll? The odds will always be 2/6 (or 1/3). Reducing variance means you're playing with loaded dice or something.

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»Draigun    6835

Mill 4 or draw 5-6 cards....

 

Draw 3-4 cards or mill 1, 2, 5, or 6 cards....

 

The latter is not a fucking option.

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Zet    385

It's ironic that people who plays sixth sense lacks common sense. 

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»Logic    2033

I thought you called 3 and 4 on DN only because the DN dice is slightly loaded?
 
At least for me, when Sixth Sense became legal I did 100 die rolls and got the following results;
 
1; 11 times
2; 13 times
3; 33 times
4; 20 times
5; 14 times
6; 9 times
 
I personally chose 3 and 4 because it gives me the best chance of drawing, and to some degree I do not mind milling 5/6 in Dragons. I've actually kept some notes on this since then and over the games/matches I've played I found that 3 is the most frequently occurring number on DN for more people than just myself, I've also noticed that in the last 50 or so die rolls I've done I've been getting 5 more frequently when I have rolled a 5 in a previous game.
 
Anyway that's just what I've noticed, I'm not sure I'd call 3/4 as a standard irl though.

SnipeHunter-CDIP-EN-C-1E.jpg

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+scuzzlebutt    23495

I thought you called 3 and 4 on DN only because the DN dice is slightly loaded?
 
At least for me, when Sixth Sense became legal I did 100 die rolls and got the following results;
 
1; 11 times
2; 13 times
3; 33 times
4; 20 times
5; 14 times
6; 9 times
 
I personally chose 3 and 4 because it gives me the best chance of drawing, and to some degree I do not mind milling 5/6 in Dragons. I've actually kept some notes on this since then and over the games/matches I've played I found that 3 is the most frequently occurring number on DN for more people than just myself, I've also noticed that in the last 50 or so die rolls I've done I've been getting 5 more frequently when I have rolled a 5 in a previous game.
 
Anyway that's just what I've noticed, I'm not sure I'd call 3/4 as a standard irl though.

did no one ever teach you about statistical significance

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Freezy    69

I thought you called 3 and 4 on DN only because the DN dice is slightly loaded?
 
At least for me, when Sixth Sense became legal I did 100 die rolls and got the following results;
 
1; 11 times
2; 13 times
3; 33 times
4; 20 times
5; 14 times
6; 9 times
 
I personally chose 3 and 4 because it gives me the best chance of drawing, and to some degree I do not mind milling 5/6 in Dragons. I've actually kept some notes on this since then and over the games/matches I've played I found that 3 is the most frequently occurring number on DN for more people than just myself, I've also noticed that in the last 50 or so die rolls I've done I've been getting 5 more frequently when I have rolled a 5 in a previous game.
 
Anyway that's just what I've noticed, I'm not sure I'd call 3/4 as a standard irl though.

did no one ever teach you about statistical significance

I've never been taught about it, so I'll check it up for sure. Obviously there's something I've missed so feel free to ignore my previous post.

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»neptune    3789


why the fuck do people care? call whatever you want to call. in the end no matter what you call and it goes through, you're probably going to win anyway.

that's like the worst logic ever. You basically just said "who cares if I misplayed I still won"

 

It shouldn't be about them though. It's more-so "are you making the right plays in general?"

 

If my opponent misplays their shit out of luck. It shouldn't be my problem that they're not calling 5-6.

 

I don't really care what other people are calling on their Sixth Sense, nor do I think it really inhibits much of a discussion.

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»ACP    33422

ITT people don't understand the difference between expected value and expected utility. Would you rather have a 1/10 chance to win $1,000,000 or a 1/100 chance to win $10,000,001? Calling 5 and 6 is always the best expected value, but not always the best expected utility. You guys apply this reasoning to other cards as well, such as why you might have played around an opponent's 1-of Mirror Force even though the odds were that they didn't have it.

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»Relianah    4515
Allen how is 6 cards in gy more utility then cards in hand?

@ Kelly, yeah idc if randy McRetard calls it wrong but it's moreso to say to DGz that they are indeed retarded
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»ACP    33422

If you're in a scenario where drawing 3, drawing 4, milling 5, and milling 6 will all likely win you the game, then you'd be a fucking moron not to call 3 and 4. A draw is always worth more than a mill, but the whole point of expected utility is the idea of reducing variance rather than going with something that's strictly the most expected value. Of course like 99% of the people in the thread are close-minded and are probably just going to call the same thing every time (whether it's 3&4, 5&6, or something else entirely). The people who realize that it's situation dependent are going to get more mileage out of the card, but it won't matter much in the long run because the card is just so luck-based regardless of how you play it.

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»Relianah    4515

ITT people don't understand the difference between expected value and expected utility. Would you rather have a 1/10 chance to win $1,000,000 or a 1/100 chance to win $10,000,001? Calling 5 and 6 is always the best expected value, but not always the best expected utility. You guys apply this reasoning to other cards as well, such as why you might have played around an opponent's 1-of Mirror Force even though the odds were that they didn't have it.

this part of your post makes me think you're trying to say people are being greedy by going for the bigger payout... which isn't true at all, the chance of getting 3-4 is the same as 5-6, you have a 1 in 3 chance either way..

I'm sure I'm reading this wrong somehow though
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»Relianah    4515
I don't see a situation where drawing 3/4 milling 5/6 is better then drawing 5-6 and milling 3-4
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»ACP    33422

I mean if you're just looking at the card with the mentality that only the number of cards drawn matters, then obviously you're going to call 5 and 6. But the number of cards milled also matters. It's all about determining the value of a mill relative to the value of a card in hand. Maybe since Dragons are a 40 card deck with 12 rulers, we'll say that a mill is worth .3 cards in hand. Just to be safe, we'll try .25 cards. This is somewhat arbitrary and just used to demonstrate the concept.

 

If you call 5 and 6 here are the possible outcomes:

1 = .25 cards

2 = .50 cards

3 = .75 cards

4 = 1 cards

5 = 5 cards

6 = 6 cards

 

Expected value = 2.25 cards

 

If you call 3 and 4 here are the possible outcomes:

1 = .25 cards

2 = .50 cards

3 = 3 cards

4 = 4 cards

5 = 1.25 cards

6 = 1.50 cards

 

Expected value = 1.75 cards

 

The expected values aren't far off, but you'll see that the second set of outcomes looks much more rewarding in terms of consistency. How you calculate expected utility is based on your personal risk aversion. How risky you decide to be in game is often about whether you're playing to win (willing to accept more risk) vs. playing to not lose (willing to accept less risk). In the million dollar scenario, you'd be much more likely to accept the 1/100 odds to win $10,000,001 if you absolutely needed $5,000,000 to pay for your sister's eye operation so she wouldn't go blind. Maybe that's why Sixth Sense was included in LC Joey.

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Dgz Punk    929

If I honestly BELIEVED that this card had some real strategy to it, I would always call 4/5 (because abunch of times I've milled 4 & drawn 5), but lets face it the REASON this card is so good is the ability to just randomly get a +5 out of nowhere for doing absolutely nothing. No setup required, no combos required, just 1 dice roll and a correct call gains you a new hand on top of what you've already got. 


The ONLY decks I'd ever consider 6 not being an option to call is literally if it were a deck that everything I wanted could just go to the grave (I.E. Lightsworn) but even then I'd still fucking call 6 because if you get 6 cards, unless they can OTK you THAT turn you likely win. Getting 5-6 cards is just game breaking in any and every deck that there's absolutely no reason in my eyes to gain the absolute maxx value, which will always be drawing the cards considering you're not going to always mill the perfect cards and there are cards you'd like in your hand sometimes (I know I've milled Return off of it when my opp rolled and 3 and I was just like, "I would've won the game in 2 turns had I drawn that"). 

 

 

I might be wrong and if somebody can honestly give true reasoning as to why you shouldn't I'd love to hear, but I'm pretty sure the reason EVERYBODY was like "this card automatically goes into your deck" is because of the ability to gain a +4/+5 without any work. If you add the card to your deck for that ability but don't use it for that reason, then why did you add the card in the first place?

 

Edit: Didn't see Allen's post.

 

I can see your reasoning there, but even in those scenarios WHY wouldn't you just call 4/5 and leave 6 as your huge blow-out. If I were in a situation with Dragons where in your theory that calling 3/4 would be better, why isn't just calling 4/5 better then 3/4? You can still get a huge mill if they hit 6, you can still get up to a free Card Trooper eff (not literally, but milling 3 is obviously still good in dragons otherwise Trooper wouldn't be a real thing) so why not give yourself a chance to still get 4-5 cards off a draw. I highly doubt the times where you mill 5 will be a big difference then drawing 5, even in Dragons.

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»Pharaoh Atem    15769

The next post to rely on anecdotal evidence is going to become acquainted with the DG Orbital Strike Machine.

 

Pennington, your job is to pay LP and begin chanting when you see anecdotal evidence, that my summoning is completed

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Bergy    788
When you Mill 5 or 6 you have a potential +3* or +4*
When you draw 5 or 6 you go +5 or +6
When you mill 3 or 4 you have a potential + 3/4
When you draw 3 or 4 you will go +3 or +4
When you mill 1 or 2 you have a potential +1 or +2.
When you draw 1 or 2 you go + 1 or +2.
*(For standard dragons of course.)

If you mill 6 dragons you're still only going +4.

The potential +'s of milling 3-4 is equal to that of milling 5-6, while drawing 5-6 will win you the game. Of course you have to weigh in that you can mill fodder etc, but it just seems best from that point of view to roll 5-6 to me.

The only time I would call 3-4 is if I desperately need a lot of dragons, 3-4 draw means that I can see draw cards and then see more than I'd mill if I call 5-6, and if I hit 5-6 I can see up to 5-6 dragons.

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Evolution`    2037

I just wouldn't say anything. Then when these autistic fucks draw sixth sense against me I will know I only have to play around the 4 extra cards rather then 6. You are helping me win. Thanks,

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Impact    3807

calling 3/4 is strictly better in dragons because cards in the graveyard can be just as good as cards in the hand when you need to make dragon summons. my dragon build is also a little different so milling cards has more expected value.

 

i will beat you from a +2 or +3. 

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