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2015 Fantasy Football

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Entered a couple Thursday FD tournament contests with this:

Taylor
Hill
Lacy
Beckham
John Brown
Agholor
Gronkowski
Walsh
Dolphins

And a 50:50 with Brady, Abdulah, and Davante Adams over Taylor, Lacy, and Brown

I'd sub Lacy out for Murray. Higher O/U. Better matchup/offense. I like Lacy, but without jordy there to stretch the field and given recent history (see his rushing totals vs the bears - they arent good. He made it up due to playing absolute routes which this may not be with cobb hurt and nelson out). 

 

Davante over agholor. 

 

Mcmanus over Walsh

 

IMO

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My problem with the top rb's this week is that players like lamar miller, johnathan stewart, doug martin, and alfred blue have a real good chance of matching or surpassing their numbers

Agreed, but the those guys are significantly more risky and taking a risk on a guy like Taylor is much more palatable and lets you afford the same things. What it takes for him to 3x is so small that it lets you get the guys you want and have the best chance of 3xing at other positions lowering you overall risk. One of the many lineups Im running on fanduel

 

Tyrod Taylor - Easy cash game/GPP pick. Minimal risk, high upside 

 

RB: Murray. Even with only 60% of the carries that gives him 18 a game and he gets an easy matchup.

 

RB: Hill - Bengals vs Oakland. Carr sucks and will have a lot of 3 and outs meaning more plays for the Bengals. Expect them to ride Hill successfully and a very real possibility of 2 TDs

 

WR: Demaryius Thomas - High Floor with an even higher ceiling. There is just so much volume for him, expecially in the red zone (avg'd 2 targets there a game last year and now JT is gone), that he is too good to pass up. I expect an 8 catch 125 yd and possibly 2 TD game especially with Sanders not 100%. 

 

WR: Odell Beckham Jr- Volume in what is going to be a high over/under game that has the Giants from behind early and often. If Eli improved his efficiency even a little bit, he will go off. Another guy that see 2 red zone targets a game and goes against an infinitely worse defense than last year. Game script for this team means they throw a ton ie play from behind. Another guy I can see with 8 catches 125 yards and at least 1 TD. Only concern is what we saw in preseason 

 

WR: Davante Adams. With Cobb hurt, even if he plays, expect him to see the most targets and he is also their biggest receiver meaning Red Zone Monster. 

 

TE: Greg Olsen - Say it with me now. Volume Play. 

 

K: Brandon McManus - Peyton Manning led offense vs a good defense. Also stacks with DT turning all TD's into 7 point plays,

 

Def: Kansas City - Brian Hoyer was the most inaccurate QB in the league last year. The Texans don't have Foster and KC has one of the scariest defense in the nfl which is bolstered by the return of All Pros - Eric Berry and Derrick Johnson

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Jazz    5323
Vegas point totals:

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml

Tells us the biggest blow out and point total combo will be GB > Chicago (or NE > Pitt). That's why I'm looking so longingly at Lacy.

As a general rule I try not to conflict myself in my line ups. I don't usually like taking a WR and RB from the same offense for example.

I'm kinda surprised Cinci > Oak is only a 3.5 favorite. Point total is ok. I think game script is a lot of Hill and a dash of Gio. I think the Bengals are going to be seriously good this year. Gino Atkins has been getting glowing reports and the return of Eiffert and Marvin Jones can only help the offense.

DEF is tough to figure out in FD (and in general in fantasy). I have to look at the scoring criteria again. I usually try to go for plays that involve potential special teams TDs, which I feel like are slightly more predictable than defensive TDs (depends on kick/punt returner skills).
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Jazz    5323

Tyrod Taylor is the obvious play. I would maybe go Brady in cash games, because he is somewhat under priced and I don't see NE running the ball. I see Brady throwing checkdowns to backs, which only pads his stats and increases his chances of throwing a higher percentage of his team's TDs. IMO he's the best "high end" QB play.

 

All those RBs in the < 8000 range are so yucky. As Francis said a lot can go wrong, and they have limited ceilings. The guy I was most intriguiged by was Lamar Miller though, but then I remembered Wash had a strong rush def last year... so maybe this is Landry's game to be a PPR machine.

 

The best surefire RBs to me are:

Murray

Hill

Anderson

Lacy

 

Gamble RBs:

Martin

Abdulah

 

I think Week 1 especially is very hard to pick out low end priced RBs.

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Tyrod Taylor is the obvious play. I would maybe go Brady in cash games, because he is somewhat under priced and I don't see NE running the ball. I see Brady throwing checkdowns to backs, which only pads his stats and increases his chances of throwing a higher percentage of his team's TDs. IMO he's the best "high end" QB play.

 

All those RBs in the < 8000 range are so yucky. As Francis said a lot can go wrong, and they have limited ceilings. The guy I was most intriguiged by was Lamar Miller though, but then I remembered Wash had a strong rush def last year... so maybe this is Landry's game to be a PPR machine.

 

The best surefire RBs to me are:

Murray

Hill

Anderson

Lacy

 

Gamble RBs:

Martin

Abdulah

 

I think Week 1 especially is very hard to pick out low end priced RBs.

I mean Alfred Blue and Jon Stewart stick out as the best value plays. 

 

Higher end plays I like - Murray, Hill (even then only slightly cause the raiders can defend the rush well). I don't trust Lacy because outside of Rodgers going Bananas on the bears, the Bears defended the rush well last year in those games. The Packers o line is reportedly a concern and now Rodgers and Nelson wont be taking as much attention away from Lacy. 

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slickz    4307
i guess if tyrod puts up over 10 pts you're going + but this week matt ryan, romo, eli, payton, rodgers, bradford, all have a real chance of putting up 30+ pts. The difference in points from two decent rbs and a good qb i think far outweighs taylor and two studs that might outscore the other rb's by 5-10 pts.

then again im playing in the 25$ 5 mill tourny which is a different strategy than head to head. You have to get lucky and be somewhat of a contrarian to place high.

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i guess if tyrod puts up over 10 pts you're going + but this week matt ryan, romo, eli, payton, rodgers, bradford, all have a real chance of putting up 30+ pts. The difference in points from two decent rbs and a good qb i think far outweighs taylor and two studs that might outscore the other rb's by 5-10 pts.

then again im playing in the 25$ 5 mill tourny which is a different strategy than head to head. You have to get lucky and be somewhat of a contrarian to place high.

I mean, the idea behind playing Taylor is that he will likely get 10-15 (3x) pts because of his price and predictability of the position. Given WR's only triple up about 16% of the time and usually its the elite guys that do it and RB's are in close to the same vein, playing Tyrod lets you get value back and lets you pick the guys with the best chance to return value. 

 

Don't forget that if you play most of those guys in GPP, you need to get 25-30 pts for them to return value in order to make up for the hits you took at other positions (which conceivably are much more less likely to 3x). Guys like Adams and Blue are value so they allow you to go for the more consistent option above while still getting value, but they are still less likely than guys like Murray etc... 

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Jazz    5323
My philosophy on contrarian is it rarely matters. Rather would focus on what I can control and play what I think is the best possible team. Contrarian maybe to the point of finding value plays that aren't necessarily sexy or in a big media market.

Still looking for the best Vegas site for this purpose TBH. Why are there so many crappy ones...

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Joe.    4932

I am playing against the Pats homer in my $50 league. Watching Brady, Gronk and Edelmen eat Pitt. up is bitter sweet lol.

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I am playing against the Pats homer in my $50 league. Watching Brady, Gronk and Edelmen eat Pitt. up is bitter sweet lol.

This. I am a Ravens fan and I hate the Pats but man does it feel good to see the Steelers suck. (altho tbh neither defense looks even remotely close to good) 

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Qb - Tyrod - 7.8%

RB: Demarco Murray - 12.7%

RB: Jeremy Hill - 9.7%

WR: Demaryius Thomas - 5.7% - value play right here

WR: Odell Beckham - 10%

WR: Davante Adams - 27.5%

TE: Greg Olsen - 18.5%

K: Brandon McManus - 14.7%

DEF: Kansas City - 3.9% 

 

So I really regret playing Adams and Olsen. Even if they go off, they are too highly owned for it to really matter. It would have been better to use rudolph and like Jordan Matthews or Landry (which for Sunday I will probably change this too). Demaryius Thomas is looking like an absolute steal in GPP. He could be a huge difference maker if he goes off (which he should). Beckham at 10% is okay, but that likely goes up for Sunday meaning I likely fade him as well. 

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Angeles    213
Dez > DT in the red zone + plus playing a softer overall defense. Cobb is 1.9% owned but he's playing injured, Landry is 8.9%, Eifert 3.2%, Rodgers 5.4%.

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Jazz    5323

I like Dez over DT. Really not sure how much these bronocs are going to throw. But I'm starting to think Julio+OBJ is the best $$$ combo.

 

This 2820 person gpp:

 

Taylor - 7%

Hill - 8.1%

Lacy - 23.1%

OBJ - 9.4%

John Brown - 5.5%

Nelson Agholor - 5.2%

Rob Gronkowski - 31.7%

Walsh - 1.9%

Dolphins - 17.1%

 

Let's talk about contrarian though, because I still don't think it matters as long as I pick a great team. Say 30% of the field picks the best TE. Should I not have picked that guy? Maybe, but only IF he didn't score the most points/$ and I pinpoint the exact guy(s) who do. This week, gronk goes off for 3.5x. I'm still ahead of 70% of the field. For a cash game, I'm golden. For GPP, I'm at an advantage, and the rest of my line up only needs to be better than about 2/3 of the remaining people who chose Gronk in order to place (assuming a small fraction of non-Gronk users also place).

 

If Gronk is a bust, even at 31% owned, then of course I am at a huge disadvantage. Probably an insurmountable disadvantage in a tournament. However, if Gronk is a bust in a cash game: Yes, I'm in the hole, but only to 69% of players. If Gronk was a contrarian pick at 5%, it would have been even worse for me, because I still need to make up an enormous ground on the 95% of non-Gronk players to place in the top 85% for GPP or the top 50% for cash. 

 

Let's dispell another contrarian myth. Let's use Davante Adams (30%) and Nelson Agholor (5%) as an example (both $5500). Conventional wisdom is that, as the Agholor owner, I would be thrilled if Agholor goes 3x and Adams goes 1x. I got my "contrarian value". But what's more important is that I also score higher than the other 65% of users. Going 3x, I probably did.  So in total I did better than 30+65 = 95% of users. Now, swap the players. Adams users only do better than 70% of players even if he has the best game ever. This is the contrarian argument, that doing better than 70% of users is "not good enough." I disagree. You get prizes in DFS for complete line ups, so you have to look at every position.

 

If I am in the top 30% at 6 positions, and falter at 3 positions (a good day) I will be in the top (0.3)^(6-3) = 2.7%. That's amazing. Hardly a bad position for going conventional and getting 2/3 of my picks right. If I do this at 7 positions, I jump to top 0.243%, 8 positions -> 0.022%., 9 positions -> 0.002%

 

Now if you look at the math, I suppose contrarian can matter if the conventional pick is very highly owned. Like 50-80% or so. Then it really starts to dampen your success. But I'm not going to devote my efforts to figuring out who will be 50+% owned, because I don't think that happens much in DFS.

 

In summary, here's my philosophy:

1. In GPP, pick a great team. You can't afford to miss on anything.

2. In 50:50 games, if you are going to miss, better to miss on a conventional pick.

3. It doesn't matter who your opponents play, as long as everyone averages a 1.5-2x line up and you hit 2.5x in cash or 3x in GPP.

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