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Francis J Underwood

The Official 2016-2017 NFL Season Thread

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Highlighting my point about RG3 not trusting his protection. You can argue he was worse with no pressure, but like I pointed out with Bradford, phantom pressure is a thing and happens when you dont trust your protection. 

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/05/20/qbs-in-focus-under-pressure/

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fractal    2488

Wait, here's the AFC North: the past 4 years:

 

2015 - Cincinnati - .750, Pittsburgh - .625, Baltimore - .313

2014 - Pittsburgh - .688, Cincinnati - .656, Baltimore - .625

2013 - Cincinnati - .688, Pittsburgh - .500, Baltimore - .500

2012 - Baltimore - .625, Cincinnati - .625, Pittsburgh - .500

 

NFC West during same span:

2015 - Arizona - .813, Seattle - .650, San Fran - .313

2014 - Seattle - .750, Arizona - .688, San Fran - .500

2013 - Seattle - .813, San Fran - .750, Arizona - .625

2012 - San Fran - .719, Seattle - .680, St. Louis - .469

 

During that span, the AFC North has played in 1 Super Bowl, the NFC West has played in 3, AFC North has played in 3 games that were at least at the Divisional round (only 1 Conference game), the NFC West played in 7 (5 Conference appearances).

 

Now, St. Louis won 6 or 7 games each year. If St. Louis was competitive in that division winning 6-7 games, then that has to be the bar for Cleveland. The AFC North is weaker than the NFC West, so it should be attainable. It's also funny that you note that Baltimore is a top 8 team and leave out Dallas. Want to come with the old "injury" excuse for why Baltimore is better? Well Dallas could tell you the same (Romo, Bryant).

 

The AFC North is a bit more fluff than you'd like to think it is. None of the QBs, with all their offensive talent around them, finished with more than 24 TD passes. On defense, Cincinnati was 2nd in points/game, with Pittsburgh next in the division at 11th, and Baltimore at 24th, while the NFC West went 1st, 7th, and 13th. In terms of yards/game, the AFC North had Baltimore at 8th, Cincinnati at 11th, Pittsburgh 21st, and the NFC West was at 2nd, 5th, and 23rd. So if the worst team in the NFC West can win 5-7 games year in and year out, then Cleveland should be able to do the same in the AFC North.

 

Also, completely aside from anything else, nfl.com's Situational Stats is really fun to look at:

 

Wilson, Palmer, and Newton all saw their QB rating increase as the game went on, and generally saw even play regardless of score, or better play as they were behind. Roethlisberger, Flacco, and Dalton, however, all saw their ratings decrease as the game goes on, and really only Flacco and Dalton played well when trailing.

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Wait, here's the AFC North: the past 4 years:

 

2015 - Cincinnati - .750, Pittsburgh - .625, Baltimore - .313

2014 - Pittsburgh - .688, Cincinnati - .656, Baltimore - .625

2013 - Cincinnati - .688, Pittsburgh - .500, Baltimore - .500

2012 - Baltimore - .625, Cincinnati - .625, Pittsburgh - .500

 

NFC West during same span:

2015 - Arizona - .813, Seattle - .650, San Fran - .313

2014 - Seattle - .750, Arizona - .688, San Fran - .500

2013 - Seattle - .813, San Fran - .750, Arizona - .625

2012 - San Fran - .719, Seattle - .680, St. Louis - .469

 

During that span, the AFC North has played in 1 Super Bowl, the NFC West has played in 3, AFC North has played in 3 games that were at least at the Divisional round (only 1 Conference game), the NFC West played in 7 (5 Conference appearances).

 

Now, St. Louis won 6 or 7 games each year. If St. Louis was competitive in that division winning 6-7 games, then that has to be the bar for Cleveland. The AFC North is weaker than the NFC West, so it should be attainable. It's also funny that you note that Baltimore is a top 8 team and leave out Dallas. Want to come with the old "injury" excuse for why Baltimore is better? Well Dallas could tell you the same (Romo, Bryant).

 

The AFC North is a bit more fluff than you'd like to think it is. None of the QBs, with all their offensive talent around them, finished with more than 24 TD passes. On defense, Cincinnati was 2nd in points/game, with Pittsburgh next in the division at 11th, and Baltimore at 24th, while the NFC West went 1st, 7th, and 13th. In terms of yards/game, the AFC North had Baltimore at 8th, Cincinnati at 11th, Pittsburgh 21st, and the NFC West was at 2nd, 5th, and 23rd. So if the worst team in the NFC West can win 5-7 games year in and year out, then Cleveland should be able to do the same in the AFC North.

 

Also, completely aside from anything else, nfl.com's Situational Stats is really fun to look at:

 

Wilson, Palmer, and Newton all saw their QB rating increase as the game went on, and generally saw even play regardless of score, or better play as they were behind. Roethlisberger, Flacco, and Dalton, however, all saw their ratings decrease as the game goes on, and really only Flacco and Dalton played well when trailing.

Marking this so I can respond to it tomorrow but factor in that every single QB in that division was hurt this year. 

 

I leave Dallas out due to track record. Perennial 500 with 1 winning season does not a consistent threat make. 

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Eh fuck it I'm committed now. The 24 passing touchdown stat is bullshit. If you're going by that you may as well throw out the entirety of 2015 out for the division. Ben went down for a significant # of games. Flacco went down. Dalton went down. Hell even Dick Down McCown went down. Besides that passing touchdowns is an extremely limited measure of how good an offense is or how effective it is. Even then offense is basically only half the equation when assessing how good a team is. Track record and future Outlook need to be factored in and assessed. 

 

So qualifying 2015. The AFC North was basically even with the NFC West despite being severely hamstrung (fuck the marshawn lynch argument for Seattle. No loss = a QB ). No major injuries iirc other than Lynch and Mathieu. Not counting Rawls because you guys did get Lynch back and outside of 1-2 games (iirc) had one or the other 

 

2014 the North was better overall in regards to those three

 

2013 - The west was better but San Fran and Seattle were two of the most talented rosters in the league. Baltimore had massive turn over after their SB win and despite San Fran's record and NFCCG appearance, the team (with its QB) regressed from the previous year. 

 

2012 - I'm guessing San Fran had a draw with St Louis, but outside of that skewing things slightly they are about even.

 

So here we can either extend the data set further back and find the North is likely better and the more consistent division or we can shorten it to the last 2-3 years to have a more representative data set of where the team is at now and will be going forward (which of course requires qualifying it based on changes in roster and injuries). 

 

I wonder if Peyton Manning and Brady being in the same conference and not the NFC West influenced the AFCCG appearences stat (which is another bs stat you use to puff up your division). While the NFC does have Rodgers, he can't singlehandedly preclude an NFC West Team from getting in. Brady and Manning being as good as they are can lock that game up. Gonna really knock them for having to deal with 2 of the GOATS? 
Outside of last year where Manning regressed horrendously and lost to the Colts, I'll bet it has been Brady Manning every other time the North wasnt in it (getting Manning that yr was the equivalent of a bye). 
 

I explained Dallas already but like I said, 1 good season does not negate a track record of 8-8 in a division that is decided by 9-7 or 10-6 most years (ie creampuff division). Yes Romo and Dez got hurt and they probably would have won the division with ease this year, but given the team's track record and current roster, they are not better than Baltimore. Baltimore is just a much more complete team when healthy than Dallas is and at this point when projecting outwards, those are the only two things we can look at. 

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fractal    2488

Remember how you said Gordon is a weapon? Total joke. He reportedly failed a drug test last month. Never coming back.

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Remember how you said Gordon is a weapon? Total joke. He reportedly failed a drug test last month. Never coming back.

Given his tweet, im guessing he's refuting it?
To further this, apparently he tested positive because his sample was dilute. He did have weed but not wnough to trigger a positive test.

Reinstatement delayed 2 months pending a show of a greater commitment to w/e.

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Forte.
 
"Want to win."
 
Signs with Jets.
 
Logic.

Joe how often do the pats substitute on defense? I noticed that they tended to struggle on defense vs up tempo teams and i think this gives me an idea of how belichick drafts and why he drafts the players he does.

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fractal    2488

 

 

Remember how you said Gordon is a weapon? Total joke. He reportedly failed a drug test last month. Never coming back.

Given his tweet, im guessing he's refuting it?
To further this, apparently he tested positive because his sample was dilute. He did have weed but not wnough to trigger a positive test.

Reinstatement delayed 2 months pending a show of a greater commitment to w/e.

 

 

Pot + a diluent, not just a diluted sample. It was pot + masking agent. League wants him to make it at least 90 days without a flagged test before they reinstate him. Never gonna happen.

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Remember how you said Gordon is a weapon? Total joke. He reportedly failed a drug test last month. Never coming back.

Given his tweet, im guessing he's refuting it?
To further this, apparently he tested positive because his sample was dilute. He did have weed but not enough to trigger a positive test.

Reinstatement delayed 2 months pending a show of a greater commitment to w/e.

 

 

Pot + a diluent, not just a diluted sample. It was pot + masking agent. League wants him to make it at least 90 days without a flagged test before they reinstate him. Never gonna happen.

 

Because it's not like he never managed to do this the first time when he was banned for 10-11 weeks right? 

 

I don't really care either way for Gordon, but the logic you are using is bad there. He's already managed to do it once before and on top of that has done a fairly decent job of hiding his drug use otherwise (say what you will but he didn't trigger a positive for weed). 

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fractal    2488

 

 

 

 

Remember how you said Gordon is a weapon? Total joke. He reportedly failed a drug test last month. Never coming back.

Given his tweet, im guessing he's refuting it?
To further this, apparently he tested positive because his sample was dilute. He did have weed but not enough to trigger a positive test.

Reinstatement delayed 2 months pending a show of a greater commitment to w/e.

 

 

Pot + a diluent, not just a diluted sample. It was pot + masking agent. League wants him to make it at least 90 days without a flagged test before they reinstate him. Never gonna happen.

 

Because it's not like he never managed to do this the first time when he was banned for 10-11 weeks right? 

 

I don't really care either way for Gordon, but the logic you are using is bad there. He's already managed to do it once before and on top of that has done a fairly decent job of hiding his drug use otherwise (say what you will but he didn't trigger a positive for weed). 

 

 

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-videos/0ap3000000652032/Josh-Gordon-failed-drug-test-last-month?campaign=tw-nn-sf24163343-sf24163343

 

What are you even talking about? Of course he tested positive for pot and a diluent.

 

Also, his bid for reinstatement was denied today, so...

 

Still, despite his enormous potential, when a guy misses 29 games in 3 seasons due to drug related suspensions, you can't really qualify him as a "pull" to want to play somewhere.

 

Edit: Gordon can't reapply until August.

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Remember how you said Gordon is a weapon? Total joke. He reportedly failed a drug test last month. Never coming back.

Given his tweet, im guessing he's refuting it?
To further this, apparently he tested positive because his sample was dilute. He did have weed but not enough to trigger a positive test.

Reinstatement delayed 2 months pending a show of a greater commitment to w/e.

 

 

Pot + a diluent, not just a diluted sample. It was pot + masking agent. League wants him to make it at least 90 days without a flagged test before they reinstate him. Never gonna happen.

 

Because it's not like he never managed to do this the first time when he was banned for 10-11 weeks right? 

 

I don't really care either way for Gordon, but the logic you are using is bad there. He's already managed to do it once before and on top of that has done a fairly decent job of hiding his drug use otherwise (say what you will but he didn't trigger a positive for weed). 

 

 

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-videos/0ap3000000652032/Josh-Gordon-failed-drug-test-last-month?campaign=tw-nn-sf24163343-sf24163343

 

What are you even talking about? Of course he tested positive for pot and a diluent.

 

Also, his bid for reinstatement was denied today, so...

 

Still, despite his enormous potential, when a guy misses 29 games in 3 seasons due to drug related suspensions, you can't really qualify him as a "pull" to want to play somewhere.

 

Edit: Gordon can't reapply until August.

 

What is hard about this? The level of weed in his sample was under 35 nanograms, which is the minimum amount required to be present for their to be a positive result in a test for marijuana. Finding marijuana in his system at that low amount does not equal a positive test. The reason the test is positive is because the sample was dilute, which is an automatic positive for the nfl (scientifically it's inconclusive). They may have found the presence of marijuana in his system, but the level was such a low amount (under 35 nanograms) that it would not have been indicative of anything nor would it have triggered a positive result in a test for said drug. 

 

Tbh 16 of those games were for a bullshit reason. He popped for alcohol after drinking on the plane the night of the last day of the season. He had 0 issues with alcohol in the past, and the only reason he was tested and banned for that is because he was in the system for pot. Basically banned on a technicality. Was it stupid? Yes and No. He probably should have avoided all banned substances in general because that would happen, but come the fuck on. He was drinking with his teammates on the plane on the last night of the season. If that isn't a socially acceptable reason, I don't know what it is and it's not like drinking was a problem for him or he caused any problems with his drinking. It's apples and oranges. 

 

The reinstatement thing is nothing new. The NFL basically wants to see him go to rehab. They want him back in the league because of his talent and that's why they are being so lenient. The way I see it. He hasn't been an issue all year. He served his time. He was banned on a technicality anyway. Let the guy play. You can always re-ban him later if he fails another pot test. 

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In other news, Pats release 2014 1st rounder - Dominique Easely. 

 

 

Told ya, Joe. Guy couldn't stay healthy. That's a real shame given how strong the 2014 class was and now it's looking like the Pats blew that class. Altho if you hit on Jimmy G, a big if, none of the other picks in that class will matter. 

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fractal    2488
WOW. Rams gonna take a QB with #1 (obviously), and will burn. Traded two 1s, two 2s, and two 3s. They just went full Washington. Probably Wentz.
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fractal    2488

Good play from Wentz, and it won't be that bad of a trade for the Rams. I could easily see them having a hard time on offense though with virtually no good receiving options, allowing teams to just stack the box all the time. Not to mention their line is pretty bad and they currently have just 4 linebackers on the roster. Given their current roster, if Wentz is anything but good, this trade is absolutely awful. This is the deepest draft since at least 2010 (according to John Schneider, who says there are about 200 draftable players this year, whereas any other year has only had about 130-140).

 

Tennessee got a killing though. They already have a QB, young and promising offensive players, couple solid defensive guys, and now add boat loads of picks in a deep defensive draft to help build around Mariota.

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Good play from Wentz, and it won't be that bad of a trade for the Rams. I could easily see them having a hard time on offense though with virtually no good receiving options, allowing teams to just stack the box all the time. Not to mention their line is pretty bad and they currently have just 4 linebackers on the roster. Given their current roster, if Wentz is anything but good, this trade is absolutely awful. This is the deepest draft since at least 2010 (according to John Schneider, who says there are about 200 draftable players this year, whereas any other year has only had about 130-140).

 

Tennessee got a killing though. They already have a QB, young and promising offensive players, couple solid defensive guys, and now add boat loads of picks in a deep defensive draft to help build around Mariota.

Triggered!!!

 

Fucking Les Snead. 

 

/rage

 

Titans will be a threat in their division. Their draft will be good. 

 

Rams better have their franchise guy. Fwiw I like both Wentz as Goff, but they are top 40 prospects (second rounders to me) not #1. 

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fractal    2488

 

Good play from Wentz, and it won't be that bad of a trade for the Rams. I could easily see them having a hard time on offense though with virtually no good receiving options, allowing teams to just stack the box all the time. Not to mention their line is pretty bad and they currently have just 4 linebackers on the roster. Given their current roster, if Wentz is anything but good, this trade is absolutely awful. This is the deepest draft since at least 2010 (according to John Schneider, who says there are about 200 draftable players this year, whereas any other year has only had about 130-140).

 

Tennessee got a killing though. They already have a QB, young and promising offensive players, couple solid defensive guys, and now add boat loads of picks in a deep defensive draft to help build around Mariota.

Triggered!!!

 

Fucking Les Snead. 

 

/rage

 

Titans will be a threat in their division. Their draft will be good. 

 

Rams better have their franchise guy. Fwiw I like both Wentz as Goff, but they are top 40 prospects (second rounders to me) not #1

 

 

Few notes: apparently a number of teams have both rated higher than both Mariota and Winston; St. Louis is expected to draft Goff, and fell in love with him during a rainy workout; this is backed by Cleveland having wanted Goff as their guy at two, and they are now looking for trade partners to move down.

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Good play from Wentz, and it won't be that bad of a trade for the Rams. I could easily see them having a hard time on offense though with virtually no good receiving options, allowing teams to just stack the box all the time. Not to mention their line is pretty bad and they currently have just 4 linebackers on the roster. Given their current roster, if Wentz is anything but good, this trade is absolutely awful. This is the deepest draft since at least 2010 (according to John Schneider, who says there are about 200 draftable players this year, whereas any other year has only had about 130-140).

 

Tennessee got a killing though. They already have a QB, young and promising offensive players, couple solid defensive guys, and now add boat loads of picks in a deep defensive draft to help build around Mariota.

Triggered!!!

 

Fucking Les Snead. 

 

/rage

 

Titans will be a threat in their division. Their draft will be good. 

 

Rams better have their franchise guy. Fwiw I like both Wentz as Goff, but they are top 40 prospects (second rounders to me) not #1

 

 

Few notes: apparently a number of teams have both rated higher than both Mariota and Winston; St. Louis is expected to draft Goff, and fell in love with him during a rainy workout; this is backed by Cleveland having wanted Goff as their guy at two, and they are now looking for trade partners to move down.

 

See I don't buy pretty much any of that. I get that La Canforna reported it, but. 

 

1. I doubt either is rated higher than Mariota or Winston. I can buy Goff being on that level given the similarities to Mariota, but not Wentz. Winston ran a pro style for 2 + years at a high level so I doubt either is rated on par with him. 

 

2.  I expect them to draft Wentz. Better prospect in terms of physicals which scouts value tremendously. Goff is the better QB, but there are questions regarding his offense, performance against higher level competition, and arm strength imo. 

 

3. As for Cleveland leaking they want Goff, why would you do that? Answer: Because you want the Rams to take him so you can take Wentz. 

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fractal    2488

When Dominique Easley was cut, I assumed Seattle wanted him and they would try to bring him in. Apparently, teams know a pick or two in advance of who's doing what, as they call around to figure trade partners for certain picks. I actually learned this morning that Seattle wanted Bradley Roby and traded down when they found out Denver was going to draft him.

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fractal    2488

 

 

 

Good play from Wentz, and it won't be that bad of a trade for the Rams. I could easily see them having a hard time on offense though with virtually no good receiving options, allowing teams to just stack the box all the time. Not to mention their line is pretty bad and they currently have just 4 linebackers on the roster. Given their current roster, if Wentz is anything but good, this trade is absolutely awful. This is the deepest draft since at least 2010 (according to John Schneider, who says there are about 200 draftable players this year, whereas any other year has only had about 130-140).

 

Tennessee got a killing though. They already have a QB, young and promising offensive players, couple solid defensive guys, and now add boat loads of picks in a deep defensive draft to help build around Mariota.

Triggered!!!

 

Fucking Les Snead. 

 

/rage

 

Titans will be a threat in their division. Their draft will be good. 

 

Rams better have their franchise guy. Fwiw I like both Wentz as Goff, but they are top 40 prospects (second rounders to me) not #1

 

 

Few notes: apparently a number of teams have both rated higher than both Mariota and Winston; St. Louis is expected to draft Goff, and fell in love with him during a rainy workout; this is backed by Cleveland having wanted Goff as their guy at two, and they are now looking for trade partners to move down.

 

See I don't buy pretty much any of that. I get that La Canforna reported it, but. 

 

1. I doubt either is rated higher than Mariota or Winston. I can buy Goff being on that level given the similarities to Mariota, but not Wentz. Winston ran a pro style for 2 + years at a high level so I doubt either is rated on par with him. 

 

2.  I expect them to draft Wentz. Better prospect in terms of physicals which scouts value tremendously. Goff is the better QB, but there are questions regarding his offense, performance against higher level competition, and arm strength imo. 

 

3. As for Cleveland leaking they want Goff, why would you do that? Answer: Because you want the Rams to take him so you can take Wentz. 

 

 

I think Wentz is viewed as superior because he measures against Andrew Luck favorably in terms of talent (he even ran some read-option stuff). I very highly doubt that Cleveland is smoke screening to St. Louis. Everyone and their grandmother knows that St. Louis traded up with one guy in mind, and you're not going to make them change their mind by saying you wanted X guy in hopes of them taking X guy and then you get Y guy.

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fractal    2488

Also, La Canfora is eerily plugged in. Last offseason, he practically predicted every. single. move the Hawks made.

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Also, La Canfora is eerily plugged in. Last offseason, he practically predicted every. single. move the Hawks made.

I mean the reports are flying both ways. Walter Football, for example, is basically staking their rep on Wentz being the pick 

 

http://walterfootball.com/ramstitanspat.php

 

I'm not saying La Canfora/Schefter are wrong, but I think the rumors are leaking both ways, 

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fractal    2488
Seahawks bringing back Browner on 1-year deal. Attitude signing. Either he is being brought in to cover TEs, or it's to bring attitude back to the defense (for corners not named Lane/Sherman) before cutting him during preseason cuts.

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Wolfywolf.    17

Browner wont be quite as exposed if he sticks around, having Earl, Kam and Sherm really helps out whoever is on the other side of the field. Just ask Byron Maxwell. Also did anyone happen to see the leaked board of potential color rush jersey schemes? They had the Hawks plugged in with Lime green but please no, luckily the home team gets to pick the jersey first and iirc the thursday night game they play is at home. Pittsburgh was plugged in for all yellow and the owner said if they did color rush they would only wear all black or all white, hope that means Paul allen can say he wants to wear all charcoal/wolf grey or Blue.

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fractal    2488
There may be an image of Kevin Pierre-Lewis wearing a charcoal helmet on Twitter (in the locker room), but who knows. Another image shows them in all green, and it looks better than green top/blue bottoms. Also, I doubt Browner makes the team. He could be OK, but if healthy, Simon is better, and Browner will never play nickle.

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